Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Henrique Rocha Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, July 16th

With one preview seeing the match canceled thanks to a withdrawal, we start the week with a nice win in a match featuring a Portuguese player. Let’s try to do so again, as we look at Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Henrique Rocha from the ATP’s Nordea Open.

Rocha’s win probability is down around 40%, while Ugo Carabelli is favored to win at 1.60 odds. The handicap is 2.5 games and the total games line is 22.

Our Ugo Carabelli vs Rocha prediction is for Rocha to win.

Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Henrique Rocha Prediction: Portuguese Rising Prospect Undervalued in Dog Fight

• Prediction: Rocha to win
• Best Odds: 2.48
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 2/10

Odds updated at 3:00 am UK Time on July th, 2024. 

I’m not going to go crazy staking-wise here, but I do think that with two players that lack a lot of offense to their games, having one as the decided favorite is a little bit much. Rocha is newer on the scene, but these guys are both Challenger Tour-level guys, with Rocha starting to add more to his forehand this year.

Ugo Carabelli is also someone who has plenty of success on the lower circuit, but a lot of it has tended to come on his home continent of South America, where fields tend to be less challenging. When tasked with tougher draws in Europe, he’s looked more pedestrian.

With Rocha only valued to win this 40% of the time, we’re seeing a bit of disrespect for the up-and-comer who can stick with the consistent Argentine in longer rallies.

More previews are up over on the expert insights page.

Camilo Ugo Carabelli Recent Form

Though the majority of his success has come in the South American Challenger tournaments and he once again got off to a slow start this year on clay in Europe, he’s turned the tide a bit with nice runs in Poznan, Poland, and Karlsruhe, Germany. Last week in Iasi, however, he reverted to the player we’ve seen lose in early rounds once more, losing to a more power-oriented player in Valentin Royer in a match he never really had the upper hand in.

The Argentine’s game is based almost entirely on his defensive prowess and he can struggle to generate power. In a match against guys who tend to overhit more when on slow clay and playing against him, he can rely on a steady dose of unforced errors. Against someone like Rocha? I’m not sure that’s going to be nearly as effective.

He’s still more established and so maybe the slight favorite, but I’m not sure it should be as decisive as the market has made this.

Henrique Rocha Recent Form

The 2024 season has been a breakout campaign for the youngster from Porto. He won the Challenger in Murcia back in March and has made a quarterfinal, semifinal, and final on clay at that level since then.

He’s also finding his feet again after struggles on grass (to be expected from an inexperienced clay courter) and some early exits in the spring after that maiden Challenger title.

The Bratislava final came just last month, with a semifinal appearance in Trieste, Italy coming in the last event he played. The losses in those two clay court runs came against much better offensive tennis players in Kamil Majchrzak (a former top-100 player who is building his ranking after a drug ban) and Federico Agustin Gomez, a former serve-centric, but now more well-rounded while still powerful and surging Argentine.

Those are both guys that can do more to take the racquet out of his hand than Ugo Carabelli and I think he’s got a good chance to keep his clay court success going and pull off this upset.

Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Henrique Rocha H2H – Stat of the Match

This is the first time the two have met professionally on any of the tours.

Safer Gambling

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.