Cameron Norrie vs Stefano Travaglia Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, 10/9/24

For our other preview on the day, we go back to the theme of looking at a later match from down on the ATP Challenger Tour. Let’s dig into Cameron Norrie vs Stefano Travaglia from the Open de Roanne.

Travaglia’s win probability is only 27%, while Norrie is favoured to win at 1.25 odds. The handicap is 4.5 games and the total games line is 22.

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Jon Reid’s Norrie vs Travaglia prediction is for Norrie to win with relative ease.

Cameron Norrie vs Stefano Travaglia Prediction: Norrie Far Too Strong For Italian Opponent

• Prediction: Norrie to win 2-0
• Best Odds: 1.80
• Bookmaker: Bet365
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds updated at 2:00 am UK Time on October 9th, 2024. 

I’m happy that Travaglia managed to get us a win the other day against Antoine Escoffier as an underdog, but I’m not going to give him the credit to win a set almost half the time.

That’s the implication with the market setting Norrie to win in straight sets for 1.80. Norrie has been away from the game for a few months, but his return was sensational. It was against a lesser opponent, but he’s far too talented relative to the rest of this field for that absence to deter me.

Further, he could use the form heading into the season’s final stretch, and going deep here would see him return to the world’s top 50. There’s enough motivation between his ranking, shaking off rust, and finding form ahead of the final few weeks of the main tour season for me to believe he’ll be going all out in the coming days.

Finally, the matchup is one I love. Give me Travaglia as a fairly big underdog against a guy with a serve and not much else. I’m going to back him. Against a lefty that can pin him to his weak backhand side and exploit his deficiencies on hard courts? I’m happy to oppose him at a price like this.

Cameron Norrie Recent Form

Not much recent form to dig into. As I alluded to above, he hasn’t played much since losing to Rafael Nadal in Bastad, Sweden on the clay. It was a disappointing performance, as this isn’t the same Nadal as we’re used to seeing dominate on the red stuff.

His return was a successful one against a French qualifier that I don’t know much about. Dropping just three games is impressive nonetheless.

Norrie is underpowered on the main circuit but should be okay in a Challenger field and his point construction, pinpoint accuracy, and ability to start points on return are all upper-echelon stuff.

I’m happy for him to keep the momentum going and win this in two sets.

Stefano Travaglia Recent Form

Now back into the top 200 in the provisional rankings, Travaglia has been playing some solid tennis of late.

He won the opening round as a fairly large underdog and had made several deep runs at Challengers on the clay before this week. The problem is that none of those tournaments saw him play guys anywhere near the level of the former world No. 8.

I also don’t have faith in his backhand to hold up in long rallies – a staple of Norrie’s game.

I’ll likely continue to back him as an underdog against worse opponents the rest of the way in 2024, but on this occasion, the value is in opposing him in some capacity.

Cameron Norrie vs Stefano Travaglia H2H – Stat of the Match

Despite these guys both being seasoned pros, this is the first time they’ve squared off at the professional level.

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