Mika Brunold vs Sebastian Sorger Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, 16/9/24

We’ll stick with the ATP Challenger Tour for a few more days from the men’s side of things, with the main tour returning with a midweek start in Hangzhou and Chengdu.

Let’s kick things off with a look at Mika Brunold vs Sebastian Sorger from the Bad Waltersdorf Trophy tournament in Austria.

Sorger’s win probability is around 42%, while Brunol is favored to win at 1.55 odds. The handicap is three games and the total games line is 21.5.

Jon Reid’s Brunold vs Sorger prediction is for Brunold to cover the handicap.

Mika Brunold vs Sebastian Sorger Prediction: Trust Brunold in Battle of Young Guns

• Prediction: Brunold -3 Games
• Best Odds: 1.85
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 4/10

Odds updated at 1:30 am UK Time on September 16th, 2024. 

I have to side with the more well-known and stronger prospect in this matchup. I caught Sorger’s dominant win in the opening round of qualifying on Sunday, and let me say that it was relatively unimpressive.

I didn’t see much offensive prowess and the backhand floated over the net and sat up in the forecourt far too often. He was fortunate to be playing someone who couldn’t punish those mistakes.

Brunold should have a field day if Sorger can’t find more depth. He’s a promising teen with more weapons than someone like Sorger and he’s been fairly competitive at this level in the past, despite being so young and often coming up against much stronger opposition.

You can find more tennis breakdowns over on the expert insights page.

Mika Brunold Recent Form

The Swiss teenager was out in his first match last week in Szczecin, ultimately running out of gas against Ryan Seggerman in the opening round of qualifying.

This week, he received a retirement from Daniel Masur in another tightly contested match that saw the German veteran wave the white flag one game into the deciding set. I think had that match finished and Brunold won, this bet would’ve been harder to make with a long, physical match potentially leveling the playing field for Sorger. Nearly 2.5 hours is still a lengthy contest, but it was destined for 3.5 hours or so, so getting off court a bit sooner should help him on Monday.

Before these two Challengers, Brunold had played a two-week block on the ITF Tour, winning a tournament on home soil in Muttenz and then went on to reach the quarterfinals the next week in Lesa, Italy, losing 6-7, 0-6 to Tim Handel – an indication that playing almost every day for 10 days took its toll.

I’m happy to back the up-and-comer here. Brunold is part of a generation that could once again put Switzerland on the map in a big way.

Sebastian Sorger Recent Form

I wasn’t as familiar with Sorger’s game before watching the opening round of qualifying and didn’t hear much about him when he was a junior either. That match against Carlos Lopez Montagud was an indicator as to why that is. Sure, he won easily, but I don’t believe in simply looking at box scores when handicapping tennis.

In betting on individual sports, matchups are incredibly important. The fact that he could just push his way to victory on Sunday against a weaponless opponent was the epitome of a good matchup for the Austrian.

Sorger has been good enough to make plenty of quarterfinals down on the ITF circuit, but once more talented players confronted him in the draw, he struggled. For my money, he’s well behind Brunold in his development at the moment and I have this closer to a four-game handicap on clay courts in the 1.90, even with a bit of altitude factored in, so 1.85 for -3 seems a steal.

Mika Brunold vs Sebastian Sorger H2H – Stat of the Match

With these two being so young, this is the first match they’ve played against each other at the professional level.

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