Nuno Borges vs Cristian Garin Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 4/5/24

The first preview of the quarterfinal on Friday is from the ATP 250 Millennium Estoril Open. It’s Nuno Borges vs Cristian Garin in a match that is sure to have the home crowd boisterous on Borges’ behalf. Garin’s win probability is only 40.8% while Borges is favored to win at 1.60 odds. The handicap is 2.5 games and the total games line is 22.

Borges vs Garin Prediction: Home Favourite’s Return Game Should Fare Well Against Garin

• Prediction: Borges -2.5 Games
• Best Odds: 1.90
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 5/10

Odds as at 1:00 am UK Time on April 5th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

I think sometimes bettors tend to overvalue players off of one good match and undervalue others off a bad match or two. That may lead plenty to bet on the last Portuguese player in the main draw on Friday, but I don’t think that they’ll be on the wrong side of this match.

I think even looking at a larger sample, Borges’ recent form has eclipsed Garin’s by a fair margin and he also matches up well with the Chilean, whose serve has been far too vulnerable in recent times for me to believe he’s only one break of serve worse than the surging 27-year-old. Our Borges vs Garin prediction is for Borges to cover the 2.5-game handicap.

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Nuno Borges Recent Form

After a tremendous start to his season that saw him shock many by reaching the second week in Melbourne, Borges had some trouble backing up that run as he played more and more at the main tour level. Losses to players like Taylor Fritz and Casper Ruud – two of the top 15 players in the world – are nothing to be ashamed of. More importantly, not relevant to this match.

He then managed to beat another slew of talented players to win the Phoenix Challenger (again) after being sent packing from Indian Wells.

This week he recovered from an awful start against a redlining Lucas Pouille to win in three sets and then put in an incredibly impressive and complete performance against Lorenzo Musetti to reach the quarters.

His serve was well placed and landed consistently deep in the service box, while his forehand was hit with decent pace, pulled around the court with intent, and hit with a strong spin.

The part that intrigues me most about this bet, however, is that he’s an adequate returner and Garin has struggled to find clean service holds consistently. Throw in the fact that he’s tended to play longer, more physical matches and I’m happy to oppose him with an in-form player on home soil with the game to trouble him.

Cristian Garin Recent Form

It’s been a tough start to 2024 for Garin. He’s had a tough time on the court with wins and losses, as well as physically, as he’s rarely looked at his best and has yet to find his peak level of tennis.

After winning very little through March, Garin has won four matches from five to begin his clay season. Now, two of those were at a Challenger, but they were needed nonetheless.

His wins this week have seen him scrape by as a big favorite, saving 10 of 12 break points faced, while converting three of the five he generated and the second saw him comeback from 2-6 down against another player struggling a bit to start the year in Arthur Fils.

What’s more, he’s averaged over 10 break points faced in his last five matches, meaning that 4-1 record is based more on winning the right points, rather than a major turn in form.

Now against one of the better returners he’s played in the last six matches and one of the better players overall, I think we may see that luck and clutch play run out.

Nuno Borges vs Cristian Garin H2H – Stat of the Match

This is the first matchup between the two. With the way the form has been for each of these two and the way they match up, I have this closer to 3.5 games on the handicap, if not four. I have to bet on a handicap that I think is a full game off.

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