Nuno Borges vs Alexander Bublik Prediction, Expert Picks, Odds, H2H, May 10th

Our first preview from the ATP action at the Internazionali BNL d’Italia on Friday looks at Nuno Borges vs Alexander Bublik. Jon Reid’s Borges vs Bublik prediction at 1.81 odds is available below. 

Bublik’s win probability is 46.3% while Borges is favored to win at 1.78 odds. The handicap is 1.5 games and the total games line is 22.5.

Borges vs Bublik Prediction: Oppose Volatile Big Server on the Dirt

• Prediction: Borges to win
• Best Odds: 1.81
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 5/10

Odds as at 2:30 am UK Time on May 10th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Borges may have to overcome a power disadvantage here, but opposing Bublik on clay at sea level with a competent clay courter who can extend rallies at this price is a given.

It is as simple as taking a position against the Kazakh who despises slower clay courts and has done very little on them in his career. His success in Madrid was aided by a bit of altitude making his serve and first forehand more relevant and keeping points shorter, thus keeping him more engaged.

The last time we saw him in slow conditions, he won just two games against an out-of-form player who probably prefers quicker conditions himself.

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Nuno Borges Recent Form

It’s been an up-and-down clay season so far for the Portuguese, who did well to reach the quarterfinals at a high-end Challenger tournament last week in Cagliari before heading to Rome. He almost toppled Lorenzo Musetti as well, which would have been another feather in his cap for the 2024 campaign.

The time off to recover after a marathon first-round match against the clay courter Pedro Martinez is also encouraging, as fatigue would’ve been the lone concern I’d have had entering this matchup against someone who more often than not seems disinterested on the surface.

If Borges can land a decent number of first serves and let Bublik beat himself by prolonging rallies and waiting for the impatient errors, he shouldn’t have too much trouble coming through this match.

Alexander Bublik Recent Form

I don’t think there’s any doubt that Bublik’s valuation is riding high after a good week in the Spanish capital. The problem is, he had to come back from 1-6 against a deteriorating Roberto Carballes Baena and then he beat a young American who is unproven on the clay himself (Ben Shelton features in our other ATP preview for Friday).

The one break of serve margin in his loss against Daniil Medvedev didn’t seem that bad at the time, but the fact that Medvedev’s physicality was also breaking down as the week went on has that win aging poorly.

Finally, look at this slow court clay results in recent times. Clobbered by a poor Borna Coric in Monte Carlo, and defeated at last year’s French Open by an Italian youngster predominantly found at the Challenger level, he did make the third round here last year (though that seems to be the outlier), a nine-game loss to Emil Ruusuvuori (another player that is better on hard courts) and a three-set loss to Alexander Zverev in Monte Carlo last year.

Nothing impressive there and I’m happy to take a price of 1.78 to oppose him here.

Nuno Borges vs Alexander Bublik H2H – Stat of the Match

These two have yet to meet on the pro circuits. Playing at different levels most of the time and preferring different surfaces and conditions, that checks out.

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