Benjamin Bonzi vs Nicolas Jarry Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 12/31/24

For the second preview, it’s yet another match from the ATP Brisbane International. Let’s look at Benjamin Bonzi vs Nicolas Jarry as the Frenchman looks to extend his incredible run of form that dates back to last season.

Jarry’s win probability is around 46%, with Bonzi entering as the favourite to win at 1.76 odds. The handicap is one game and the total games line is 25.

Jon Reid’s Bonzi vs Jary prediction is for Bonzi to win.

Benjamin Bonzi vs Nicolas Jarry Prediction: In Form 

• Predictions: Bonzi to win & Bonzi -2 Games
• Best Odds: 1.76 & 2.19
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10 & 2/10

Odds as at 5:15 am UK Time on December 31st, 2024. Odds may now differ.

I can’t overlook the form that Bonzi has carried into the start of this season from his late season surge in 2024. His service game is on fire, he’s the more athletic player and in this particular matchup has to be seen as the more likely player to find a break of serve – as rare as they’re likely to be.

The world No. 75 struggled for a while after an injury suffered a while back after he had made it to the world’s top-50, but he appears to have finally found his rhythm again and his serve and offensive game are clicking once more.

Unless Jarry has found a way to become a more competent point starter on return overnight, he should be in real trouble when on return.

With Bonzi likely to at least get himself into a pair of tiebreaks, I’m going to go ahead and back him to win, and also sell some half games to get a nice price on an alternate handicap

I’m not overly confident Bonzi will find a slew of opportunities to break the big-serving Jarry, but I do think he’s the more likely of the two to break and that a two-game margin of victory isn’t a whole lot to ask, especially with the price well over the even money mark.

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Benjamin Bonzi Recent Form

Roanne Challenger title. St. Brieuc Challenger title. Brest Challenger finalist, losing only in a third set tiebreak. ATP Metz title as a qualifier.

Those were Bonzi’s last four professional tournaments of the 2024 season prior to making the trek down under for the start of the new campaign.

Now he’s come through qualifying and the opening round in impressive fashion. He’ll look to take down his second Chilean in as many matches, after dispatching lefty Alejandro Tabilo in the opening round.

After a series of wins at lower level events, Tabilo was a good test to see how his form would hold up against a strong player with plenty of power. He passed that test nicely. Now he’ll take on someone with plenty of power, but also a rather one dimensional game.

Don’t be surprised if the Frenchman continues to rack up the victories come Tuesday night.

Nicolas Jarry Recent Form

Despite being the 35th ranked player in the world, Jarry has really struggled in recent months. See, a lot of his ranking was built on reaching the Buenos Aires final (points he’ll have to defend next month) and then the Rome Masters final in May.

Since that week, Jarry has won three matches. One against an out of form Lukas Klein in three sets in Chengdu. Another against a Challenger player on home soil in Stockholm, which required a third set tiebreak and the third against Lorenzo Sonego by a one break of serve margin. That’s it, in 11 tournaments, plus the Olympics.

He’s also had some health issues that have caused him to play erratic tennis at times. Even his first round at this tournament saw him barely get by Mariano Navone – a clay courter from Argentina that has improved on this surface, but is still underpowered and looks uncomfortable at times.

Bonzi is a much tougher customer and is playing the best tennis of his career. This might be a bridge too far for Jarry.

Benjamin Bonzi vs Nicolas Jarry H2H – Stat of the Match

Bonzi has the lone win in the previous match between these two. That took place on clay courts at a Challenger in 2022 and in three tight tiebreaks. I’d make the case that on a hard court, Bonzi actually gains more.

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