Matteo Berrettini vs Frances Tiafoe Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, 10/23/24

Our second preview of the day also comes from the ATP’s Erste Bank Open. Let’s take a look at Matteo Berrettini vs Frances Tiafoe in what should be a serve-oriented affair.

Tiafoe’s win probability is just under 50%, while Berrettini is favored to win at 1.77 odds. The handicap is one game and the total games line is 25.5.

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Jon Reid’s Berrettini vs Tiafoe prediction is for the first set to end in a tiebreak.

Matteo Berrettini vs Frances Tiafoe Prediction: Happy to Bet on Tiebreaks in Serve-Centric Match

• Prediction: Over 12.5 Games First Set
• Best Odds: 2.78
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 1/10

Odds updated at 2:00 am UK Time on October 23rd, 2024. 

With the total at 25.5 games, the two serves on offer, the lack of return game from both of these guys, and the courts playing quickly, I’m happy to play anything over 2.50 here. I have any given set reaching a tiebreak in these conditions between these two at 40%.

I’m surprised with the total implying very close sets and the anytime tiebreak prop priced at 1.44 that we’re seeing a price like this.

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Matteo Berrettini Recent Form

Berrettini looked solid in his first outing in Vienna this week, finding a break late in the first set and then another in the second to take out Marton Fucsovics in straight sets.Other than that, since his hot run on clay at altitude in the summer, he hasn’t been the greatest. A lot of tennis for the big guy who had been out for a while probably took its toll.

I’ll tell you what though. These conditions aren’t the most taxing and the man on the other side of the net is going to struggle to extend points. Similarly, Berrettini is also likely to struggle to extend points in this one against Tiafoe.

We could be in for a dull experience watching this match, but if we can get some Tiafoe theatrics, we may very well be in for great viewing.

Frances Tiafoe Recent Form

We backed Tiafoe in one of our Tuesday previews and he managed to come through for us by the narrowest of margins. I’m not going to rely on him again, though I would prefer a bet on him than Berrettini since we get the underdog odds in what could be a coin-flip-type match.

The form has been okay, as we outlined yesterday, with a few losses, but all to decent players in the conditions the match was played in.

I’m going to back him to keep things close and get the opener to a race to seven points.

Matteo Berrettini vs Frances Tiafoe H2H – Stat of the Match

These two have played twice in the past, with neither having been any time recently. Interestingly, in the five sets they’ve played – including two on clay – three of them have reached a tiebreak.

It’s a small sample and from too long ago to be pertinent, but it does speak to each employing a style that lends itself to 7-5 and 7-6 set scores.

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