Matteo Berrettini vs Holger Rune Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 10/7/24

First preview for Monday comes from the rain-soaked Rolex Shanghai Masters. It’s one of the last ATP Masters events of the season. We’ll look at the night session and Matteo Berrettini vs Holger Rune.

Rune and Berrettini are given an equal chance to win this match, priced up in the 1.91 region. The handicap is 0 games and the total games line is 25.

Jon Reid’s Berrettini vs Rune prediction is for Rune to win.

Matteo Berrettini vs Holger Rune Prediction: Rune Too Well Rounded to be the Underdog

• Prediction: Rune to win
• Best Odds: 1.93
• Bookmaker: Unibet
• Stakes: 2/10

Odds updated at 12:00 am UK Time on October 7th, 2024. 

There’s also the concern over Berrettini retiring in Tokyo. He said he was fine entering this week, but he looked far from convincing in a two-tiebreak victory as a large favorite last time out against Chris O’Connell.

At this point, I’ll take the younger, fitter, more well-rounded player in what the market deems a coin flip.

More tennis previews are up on the expert insights page.

Matteo Berrettini Recent Form

After losses to Rune in Cincinnati and Fritz at the U.S. Open, Berrettini’s tennis from earlier in the summer may have left him with very little energy for the remainder of the 2024 campaign.

His matches at the Davis Cup provided some hope he may finish the season strong though. Still, he needed a lot of close sets and a pair of tight three-set matches to beat a prospect and an out-of-form van de Zandschulp for Italy, and I’m not convinced he’s at his best.

He also retired from a setup last week against Arthur Fils (a match we backed him to do well in). As I mentioned, he says he’s feeling fine, but I’m skeptical after his first-round match and the fact that the retirement came when leading. Precautionary retirements are much more common when players are behind and know they’re not likely to come back.

Either way, his game seems limited at the moment and he’s let some lesser players be far too competitive in matches against him, especially when compared to his runs in the altitude clay events he won and Stuttgart on the grass.

Holger Rune Recent Form

I tend to consider 2024 a down year and overall disappointment for Rune, but it should be noted the youngster is still among the top 15 players in the world and has amassed a 36-20 record. The disappointment comes in the fact that so many of those 20 losses have come as a favorite or strong favorite.

That said, he’s had a lot of success in the autumn in the past and he reached the semifinals of the Cincinnati Masters and the Tokyo 500 last week. In between, he lost both matches he played, but that’s the nature of Rune at the moment.

As I alluded to above, this is more about the fact that he’s drifted from being the favorite in the betting markets to being the slight underdog.

I understand the hesitance for market makers to doubt Berrettini on a court that seems to be playing somewhat quickly – especially when the roof is closed – but I do think that as strong as his serve is, his return game is equally as weak, which makes this a very close contest. From there, I would much rather back the higher odds with the player that is the much better mover, better returner, and has a huge advantage in any backhand exchanges.

In what should be a close contest, I think that one player has a few things that make him better and that guy here is Rune.

Matteo Berrettini vs Holger Rune H2H – Stat of the Match

These two have played three times now, though it’s tough to rely on any of them as indicators. One took place two years ago on mud slow courts and went three sets, another ended via retirement and Rune’s win in Cincinnati came against a Berrettini that looked fatigued.

I’d rely more on the stylistic handicap when looking to bet on this match.

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