Matteo Berrettini vs Gael Monfils Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 2/25/25

First preview of the day comes from the ATP 500 Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships in the night session match that should draw a crowd. Matteo Berrettini vs Gael Monfils features two big names, fan favourites and an encounter that has provided fireworks in the past.

Monfils’ win probability is only 33%, while Berrettini is favoured to win at 1.40 odds. The handicap is 2.5 games and the total games line is 23.

Jon Reid’s Berrettini vs Monfils prediction is for Monfils to win.

Matteo Berrettini vs Gael Monfils Prediction: 

• Prediction: Monfils to win
• Best Odds: 3.00
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stakes: 2/10

Odds as at 3:00 am UK Time on February 25th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

I do not understand why Berrettini keeps getting priced the way he has been. I know last season had several good weeks down at the 250 level, but the fact is, he has been average this season and he’s really struggled to win matches by any kind of margin.

He plays far too many close matches and is far too limited in what he does well to be a big favourite against a player with a big serve of his own, that is a better athlete and that had a terrific start to the 2025 campaign.

If you want to play something a tad safer here, the over 2.5 sets or the over games would also likely be good bets, but understanding how many matches the big-serving Italian plays in a close manner, I can’t overlook the fact that 33% is far too low for Monfils to win.

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Matteo Berrettini Recent Form

Other than a four-set win against Cameron Norrie in Australia and a win last week against a seemingly still-injured Novak Djokovic, there isn’t a whole lot to like on Berrettini’s 2025 CV.

A three set loss to Jack Draper that he was absolutely dominated in, a three set win against Tallon Griekspoor that took over 30 games to see the match’s first break of serve, another three set match against Griekspoor that ended in a loss.

Berrettini simply isn’t the player he once was, nor is he as good at the moment as some of his strong weeks at the lower 250 level last year would’ve indicated.

He may win this one, but I feel like we’ll be getting bang for our buck opposing him.

Gael Monfils Recent Form

Injury may have stopped Monfils’ incredible start to the season at the Australian Open after a tightly-contested first few sets and a trio of tiebreaks.

Prior to that, Monfils had won three main draw matches in Melbourne off the back of winning a title in Auckland. There have been question marks about his ability to hold up physically, but managing to go back-to-back weeks with several of those matches being in the best of five format really reassured most that Monfils still has plenty left in the tank.

That may not have been the case by the time the round of 16 rolled around down under, but having been off for over a month now should really have helped the 38-year-old recharge his batteries.

He has the serve to stick with Berrettini and keep things close, a return game that surpasses that of Berrettini, is more athletic and I think he has all the tools to pull off this upset.

With the best odds at bet365, we also have the benefit of this bet voiding if Monfils retires at any point in the match.

Matteo Berrettini vs Gael Monfils H2H – Stat of the Match

Berrettini leads the head to head between these two 3-0, but two of those three matches were at majors and required a grand slam. Further, they all took place during the 2022 season or prior to that.

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