Matteo Berrettini vs Karen Khachanov Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, 10/25/24

We’ll go right back to the ATP Erste Bank Open in Vienna for another preview on Friday. Why fix what isn’t broken? Let’s look at Matteo Berrettini vs Karen Khachanov.

Khachanov’s win probability is just under 45%, while Berrettini is favored to win at 1.70 odds. The handicap is 1.5 games and the total games line is 23.5.

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Jon Reid’s Berrettini vs Khachanov prediction is for Khachanov to push the opening set to a tiebreak and win the match.

Matteo Berrettini vs Karen Khachanov Prediction: Khachanov Worth Backing Once More This Week

• Prediction: 1st Set Over 12.5 Games & Khachanov to win
• Best Odds: 3.10 & 2.25
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 2/10 & 2/10

Odds updated at 2:00 am UK Time on October th, 2024. 

Oh boy, here we go again. After a comeback win (though by the end of the proceedings, he had generated five times more break points than Brandon Nakashima and was the better player) on Thursday, we’ll look to Khachanov to once again prove the markets are underestimating his abilities with how well he’s been playing and how strong his game is.

He may not have his opponent’s booming serve and forehand combination in this one, but he’s got plenty of firepower and is much more athletic. His backhand is also used far more effectively as a weapon and as I mentioned yesterday, he’s played plenty of strong servers in quick conditions in the last two weeks. Berrettini won’t be easy to break, but if there’s anyone ready to time that serve up and get them back in play, it’s Kacharov.

Finally, I’m not sure I’m ready to put Berrettini back in the top 10 or top 15 of my power ratings. With the favorite status afforded to him against Frances Tiafoe and Khachanov in back-to-back matches (both of whom are in the top 25 and possess top-15 talent), the market is implying he is at that level.

I still think he has a way to go to reach the peaks of previous years and a lot of his success has come at post-Wimbledon 250 clay events at altitude and at one grass tournament.

I think there’s both an overvaluation of his abilities and an undervaluation on Khachanov. Throw in an uncharacteristically poor performance from a somewhat injured Tiafoe on serve and I think there’s plenty of value in backing the tiebreak in a Berrettini match again.

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Matteo Berrettini Recent Form

As cool as it was to see Berrettini reach the final in Stuttgart on grass and then win back-to-back titles in Switzerland and Austria on clay up in the Alps, the fact is, those fields were somewhat weak and since then with the court speeds quickening, he’s struggled to string wins together, with players able to keep things much closer with easy holds.

That’s exactly what’s happened of late, with this week being his best since Kitzbuhel. He beat Marton Fucsovics, who is fairly underpowered relative to someone like his opponent on Friday and then he struggled to close out a subpar version of Tiafoe.

Color me skeptical when it comes to him being the clear favorite in this tilt.

Karen Khachanov Recent Form

I’ve gone over the impressive form of Khachanov in the last few days. The fact is, he’s playing at the level that saw him make several major semifinals and be a fixture in the world’s top 20.

At this point, I feel fairly confident that he’s closer to that level than the poor form he had shown between Rome and Hangzhou.

At this point, with Berrettini’s deficiencies on return and his form coming back, I have a tough time making either player a clear favorite in this contest.

Matteo Berrettini vs Karen Khachanov H2H – Stat of the Match

Berrettini leads Khachanov 4-1, but they haven’t played in nearly four years, and as I mentioned above, I’m not at the point where I believe the big Italian is back to being the player he once was.

Furthermore, the last time they played was on a quick hard court. That was back in 2021 at the Australian Open and it ended with Berrettini winning in three tiebreak sets.

Khachanov can stick with Berrettini and with the latter being a bit below his best, has all the chance to put one on his side of the scoreboard in this series.

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