Matteo Berrettini vs Tallon Griekspoor Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 2/19/25

The first of the day’s previews from the ATP’s 500 level tournaments comes from Matteo Berrettini vs Tallon Griekspoor at the Qatar ExxonMobil Open.

Griekspoor’s win probability is only 29%, while Berrettini is favoured to win at 1.39 odds. The handicap is three games and the total games line is 23.5.

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Jon Reid’s Berrettini vs Griekspoor prediction is for this match to go over the total.

Matteo Berrettini vs Tallon Griekspoor Prediction: Griekspoor to win—but not without a battle!

• Prediction: Over 23.5 Games & Griekspoor to win
• Best Odds: 2.06 & 3.45
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle & Unibet
• Stakes: 2/10 & 1/10

Odds as at 3:30 am UK Time on February 19th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

I won’t over complicate this handicap. You’ve got two strong servers, two poor returners and two guys that, even in slow conditions, play a lot of 7-5 and 7-6 type sets.

The data shows that both have been holding at a rate of at least 88% this season and breaking at a rate no greater than 16%. They played recently with neither ever able to create any separation in the match and it ended up being a close one.

Everything from game styles to history to data points to an over here and unless this moves to a line of 24.5 – usually reserved for two players typically known as “servebots” squaring off, I think there’s value in this.

These two may not be seen as servebots, but they both play like it for long stretches in matches.

As for the Griekspoor to win wager, when you give me a match very likely to be close, I simply can’t agree with one player being given a 30% chance to win. Further, this seems like an incredible overreaction to Berrettini beating Novak Djokovic in the first round. Keep in mind, Djokovic was coming back from an injury and the Middle East swing has always been where he’s disappointed a bit after Australia, where he’s tended to dominate and has had plenty of success.

Matteo Berrettini Recent Form

Other than that win against Djokovic that seemed far from 100%, Berrettini’s only other win this year was against Cameron Norrie in Australia from a set down at the year’s first major.

Do we really think that he should be this large of a favourite against a competent player with a history of keeping some of the big names in the sport close? I think not.

The serve and forehand are never in question, but his movement and backhand have been like big bullseyes for opponents this season and the slower conditions here won’t do him any favours in keeping points short.

He’s simply overvalued in this spot, so I’ll be on the other side.

Tallon Griekspoor Recent Form

His first match of the year was a disappointment, as he fell in straight sets against Hubert Hurkacz in Melbourne. Since then, he’s won four close matches and lost a few others. None of the wins have come against particularly in form opposition, but one was against Berrettini and let’s be real, the current version of Berrettini is far from his best.

With his game tending to lend itself to close matches and a moneyline price over 3.00, it’s simply too good a price to pass up.

Matteo Berrettini vs Tallon Griekspoor H2H – Stat of the Match

This will be the second meeting between the two. It’s actually a rematch from a few weeks ago in Rotterdam, where Griekspoor won a very close three set contest.

I’m not usually one to put much stock into head-to-head records as oftentimes the information is dated or conditions are different and the relevance simply isn’t there.

In this case however, we have a relevant time frame, a scoreline that makes total sense based on each player’s style and similar court speeds to compare. I think that match very well may repeat itself this time around.

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