Matteo Berrettini vs Arthur Fils Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, 9/27/24

Our first preview of the day comes from the ATP 500 Japan Open. Let’s go ahead and take a look at Matteo Berrettini vs Arthur Fils.

Fils’ win probability is up over 40%, while Berrettini is favoured to win at 1.65 odds. The handicap is two games and the total games line is 23.5.

Jon Reid’s Berrettini vs Fils prediction is for Berrettini to cover.

Matteo Berrettini vs Arthur Fils Prediction

• Prediction: Berrettini -2 Games
• Best Odds: 1.96
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds updated at 1:00 am UK Time on September 27th, 2024.

Though Fils does have plenty of pop on his serve and his groundstrokes, there are two reasons to like Berrettini in this matchup.

For starters, his own serve in these conditions is going to be incredibly hard to break. We’ve seen him rack up the wins in quicker conditions on slicker, lower-bouncing courts this season.

The second is that he’s far more consistent with his baseline power and doesn’t throw away service games nearly as often as his younger counterpart. That’s huge in what should be a serve dominated match and with a fairly low handicap could be enough on its own to cash this bet. The other thing in the matchup I like is his ability to defend against pace with his backhand slice and with that shot staying low, there’s a decent chance that he could generate plenty of mistakes from the Frenchman who can get error-happy at times.

Fils will have that youthful athleticism advantage, though I do think the more likely of the two to find a break of serve will be the more dependable Berrettini.

You can find more tennis previews on the expert insights page.

Matteo Berrettini Recent Form

Berrettini hasn’t been in the best of form since making the Stuttgart final and winning a pair of tournaments in elevated conditions on clay (Gstaad and Kitzbuhel). He appeared as though he may have run out of steam a bit in Cincinnati and New York where he lost to Holger Rune (from a set up) and eventual-finalist Taylor Fritz.

With the conditions suiting his game well (especially that booming first serve) and the points likely to be kept nice and short, one has to like his chances to get back on track.

He had a fairly routine win against Botic van de Zandschulp in the opening round. Though the Dutchman has been pretty poor in 2024, that is still a good sign for Berrettini.

This one may be tight, but I’d expect him to come out on top more often than not against a powerful, but often erratic youngster.

Arthur Fils Recent Form

There’s a case to be made that a lot of the movement that has made this a two game handicap rather than three we saw when this match first went live in the betting markets is an overreaction.

Yes, Fils beat U.S. Open finalist Taylor Fritz, but as impressive as that is, one has to wonder just how engaged Fritz was this week and when we look at the bigger picture, he still has plenty of struggles in recent times as well.

He hasn’t won back-to-back matches on tour since his breakout win in Hamburg that saw him lift the trophy in July, and his losses Ugo Humbert, Brandon Nakashima and Gabriel Diallo all showcased the kind of refining his game could still use.

Matteo Berrettini vs Arthur Fils H2H – Stat of the Match

These two have yet to play one another, and with both possessing some big power, it could be a great match!

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