Matteo Berrettini vs Zizou Bergs Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 3/24/25

The second preview of the day from the Miami Open comes from the mid-afternoon Matteo Berrettini vs Zizou Bergs tilt. With the field whittling down, can Bergs pick up what would be another one of his career best wins? Or can the big serving Berrettini end his run?

Bergs’ win probability is only about 30%, while Berrettini is favoured to win at 1. odds. The handicap is three games and the total games line is 23.

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Jon Reid’s Berrettini vs Bergs prediction is for Bergs to keep it close and pull off the upset.

Matteo Berrettini vs Zizou Bergs Prediction: In Form Belgian Far Too Good to be Large Underdog

• Predictions: 1st Set Over 10.5 Games, 1st Set Over 12.5 Games & Bergs to Win
• Best Odds: 2.53, 3.25 & 3.01
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle, bet365 & Unibet
• Stakes: 1/10, 1/10 & 1/10

Odds as at 3:00 am UK Time on March 24th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

When this potential matchup was made official after Bergs upset Andrey Rublev and Berrettini came back to beat Hugo Gaston, I thought there was no way that Bergs would be priced over the 3.00 odds threshold.

Lo and behold, here we are, with the ascending Bergs a large underdog against the Italian who is obviously one of the better servers on the ATP circuit, but who hasn’t been particularly dominant on tour this year, nor does his game possess the most dynamism out there.

Anytime you make a guy likely to play close sets and matches as a large favourite against someone with plenty of firepower and the ability to rack up holds of his own, I’m going to back the underdog in some capacity, with there being no way that this is truly a 70-30 type matchup.

Matteo Berrettini Recent Form

It’s been a pretty mediocre start to the year for the world No. 30. He’s got some nice wins against Novak Djokovic and Gael Monfils. The former didn’t look close to his best physically, however, and the latter was surprisingly poor on serve on the day. A pair of wins against Chris O’Connell don’t inspire, nor does the need to comeback from a set down against the diminutive Gaston last round.

I just don’t think that Berrettini is as close to the player he once was as the market seems to believe he is.

He lacks dimension, his backhand is mediocre at best and when a player is fairly one dimensional and plays a lot of close sets, I can’t have them as big favourites or big underdogs.

That’s especially true when he’s taking on someone that has the firepower to keep things close themselves and are probably more athletic and in as good form as he is.

Zizou Bergs Recent Form

This is easily the best season of Bergs’ career to date. I’ve written up a few matches he’s been involved in in recent months and I constantly mention this being the kind of season we’d been waiting for from the 25-year-old.

Strong serve, big forehand, enough rally tolerance, ability to move around the court and surface versatility. That’s a lot of boxes checked, and yet it took him a long time to get to this point and become a legitimate tour level regular.

Heck, barring an injury (something that has plagued him in the past and also hampered his progress), Bergs is likely to have eclipsed his previous best win total on the top tour by April.

He also picked up his first ever win against a top-20 player in the last round, beating Andrey Rublev in straight sets. We don’t want to overreact to a singular win, but that is the type of player that can prepare him well for a match with Berrettini.

Rublev also has a strong serve and forehand combination, plays well in quick conditions, but is even more athletic and an even better returner.

Hopefully Bergs can use that experience to help him get through what should be another tough match.

Matteo Berrettini vs Zizou Bergs H2H – Stat of the Match

This is the first meeting between Berrettini and Bergs and should be a dandy of a contest.

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