Zizou Bergs vs Facundo Diaz Acosta Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 1/13/25

The main draw down under at the year’s first major is underway as the ATP Tour takes a break and the Australian Open takes over. Let’s look at Zizou Bergs vs Facundo Diaz Acosta to kick off the week!

Diaz Acosta’s win probability is 37%, while Bergs is favoured to win at 1.53 odds. The handicap is three games and the total games line is 38.5.

Jon Reid’s Bergs vs Diaz Acosta prediction is for Bergs to cover the first set spread.

Zizou Bergs vs Facundo Diaz Acosta Prediction: Back Superior Talent But Not in Full Match Markets

• Prediction: Bergs -1.5 Games in the 1st Set
• Best Odds: 2.01
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as at 2:30 am UK Time on January 13th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

I find it really hard to believe that the underpowered and heavy topspin game of the Argentine has improved enough that he should only be a three game underdog against someone like Bergs. Could he take a set and make things physical enough to bother a guy that has trouble sustaining a high level throughout a whole match? Absolutely.

He’s certainly the inferior player on this surface though and with Bergs off a nice week entering the Australian Open, the form favours the promising Belgian as well.

The problem is, physicality has always been Bergs’ weakness and he’s struggled to prove himself in the best of five format.

That’s why I think it’s wise to trust his talent and better hard court pedigree and bigger weapons, but not trust him to cover the full match handicap that could be sunk if he fatigues and ends up losing the match outright. I want to move up the finish line and bet on a time frame where I can be more assured about Bergs playing without physical hindrances.

This bet gives us a similar one to the first set moneyline, with only a 7-6 Bergs first set win cashing the safer of the two bets, but at much worse odds.

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Zizou Bergs Recent Form

It has taken a long, long time for Bergs to start posting the results the tennis community had been expecting of him since he was a teenager. That’s partially because of poor play and composure on court and partially because of constant injury issues popping up, but he’s been able to stay fit for a prolonged period and something has clicked in his game since the French Open, where he qualified and made the third round of the main draw.

That was also a bit of reassurance that he may have improved in the physicality department as well. I’m not ready to believe in him over the course of a best of five match just yet, but it was certainly an encouraging sign on the most demanding surface in terms of fitness as well.

He also managed to qualify for Wimbledon and played a prolonged five setter against another good young player in Arthur Cazaux. A few late season quarterfinals at the 250 level on the main circuit and then a terrific start to his season by reaching the final in Auckland last week have helped propel him to the top-60.

The fitness off a long week and in the Australian summer heat means I’m going to look to play some early match markets, but I certainly can’t pass on the match with these kinds of prices.

Facundo Diaz Acosta Recent Form

The world No. 73 also had a nice week in Auckland, but it should be noted he had to do so as a lucky loser, having lost in qualifying to Italian Luca Nardi.

His win against Cam Norrie saw the Brit almost defaulted for hurling his racquet out of frustration and beating Sebastian Baez (needing to save set points in the second set to keep it to two sets) is almost meaningless considering his compatriot is also fairly helpless on quicker hard courts.

His loss to Gael Monfils was also more lopsided than Bergs’ and ultimately, for me, he rates out as one of the worst quick court players that is ranked inside the top-100.

There is a path to victory for him if he can wear down Bergs, but in the first set, I’d expect his counterpart to be too much for him.

Zizou Bergs vs Facundo Diaz Acosta H2H – Stat of the Match

Bergs won the lone matchup between these two a few months ago in Antwerp in his native Belgium in straight sets.

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