Zizou Bergs vs Alexander Bublik Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 4/15/25

Our first preview of the day’s ATP action comes from the BMW Open as we delve deeper into the Zizou Bergs vs Alexander Bublik matchup.

Bublik’s win probability is 43%, while Bergs is favoured to win at 1.65 odds. The handicap is two games and the total games line is 22.5.

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Jon Reid’s Bergs vs Bublik prediction is for Bergs to win.

Zizou Bergs vs Alexander Bublik Prediction: Bublik Overvalued After Pair of Wins Against Low Level Players in Qualifying

• Prediction: Bergs to win & Bergs -3 Games
• Best Odds: 1.65 & 2.24
• Bookmaker: SX Betting Exchange & Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10 & 2/10

Odds as at 1:15 am UK Time on April 15th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

We’re getting a bit carried away as a tennis betting market when we’re heavily backing Bublik as a collective in a clay court match. The question is why? Thanks to two strong wins against relative no names in qualifying? Perhaps because he “needs the win” for ranking points (everyone has the ranking points motivation in an ATP 500)? His serve in slight altitude? I can’t think of a reason to shift the implied probabilities in his favour by over 4%.

Even at the opening price (from a sharp bookmaker) of 2.55 I think there may have been a slight overvaluation on Bubli. At 2.33? There’s just no way I’m going to pass on a chance to oppose him with a quality player who doesn’t mind the clay himself.

I’m also going to be adding the alternate games handicap in this one. With what we know about Bublik’s ability to lose composure the second anything goes wrong and how often he loses lopsided sets in clay matches where he simply has no desire to fight and grind his way through slower conditions, selling a half game or full game seems to be the smart thing to do. If Bergs is going to cover a two game handicap, there are very few instances in a match like this where he won’t cover the three game handicap as well.

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Zizou Bergs Recent Form

The clay season didn’t get off to the most successful start as Bergs ran into a volatile, albeit extremely talented player, in Fabian Marozsan. He was crushed in the opening set before making it competitive in the second stanza, despite falling in a tiebreak.

It’s not the easiest draw this time around either, but considering the clay pedigree of his opposition, it’s a match Bergs should expect to win and I have him winning nearly 65% of the time, even when one considers the slight elevation of Munich potentially helping the big first serve of Bublik.

Bregs is no slouch on serve himself and is just fine playing out longer points on red clay, something his opponent has not proven in his career, as he’s stated on more than one occasion that he prefers the quicker surfaces of hard courts and grass.

I don’t see any clear weaknesses in Bergs’ game and though he doesn’t have too many signature wins in 2025, he is having his best ever season this year.

Good chance for him to progress here and then potentially prove himself against another volatile-but-manageable opponent in Denis Shapovalov for a berth in the quarterfinals.

Alexander Bublik Recent Form

I think the recent uptick in form from the Kazakh has led to a bit too much belief in him, especially given the surface this match will be contested on.

After a series of poor results saw his ranking plunge, the world No. 78 put in an admirable effort to make the final of a high level Challenger tournament, barely losing to tennis’ top youngster in Phoenix and winning a match at the Miami Masters and pushing the highly-ranked Tommy Paul to the brink in the second round.

Now, that’s all well and good and his qualifying campaign against lower level opposition went well here as well, but I don’t trust Bublik on clay further than I can throw him.

Just last week against someone in a similar rating category for me on red clay, he was dismantled by Dusan Lajovic in the first and third sets and had to come back from a break deficit in the second just to force that decider.

The game is strong on any surface, but his patience (or lack thereof) and composure? Not exactly designed for success on the dirt.

Zizou Bergs vs Alexander Bublik H2H – Stat of the Match

There are no prior meetings between these two to dissect.

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