Mattia Bellucci vs Constant Lestienne Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 1/22/25

For Wednesday’s previews, we’ll head to the ATP’s second circuit, with the Challenger Tour having a few decent events drawing some players that have a bit of main tour pedigree. Mattia Bellucci vs Constant Lestienne is one such match at the Open Quimper Bretagne Occidentale, and it’s the first match we’ll look at.

Lestienne’s win probability is around the 42.5% mark, while Bellucci is favoured to win at 1.61 odds. The handicap is 2.5 games and the total games line is 22.5.

Jon Reid’s Bellucci vs Lestienne prediction is for Bellucci to win and cover the handicap.

Mattia Bellucci vs Constant Lestienne Prediction

• Prediction: Bellucci -2.5 Games
• Best Odds: 1.96
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as at 3:015 pm UK Time on January 21st, 2025. Odds may now differ.

At a venue that is more likely to serve the more powerful players well, this should be a match played at a different pace, with both Bellucci and Lestienne employing more variety in their games.

For my money, the lefty simply does it better at this stage, is the better athlete and has worked on his serve a lot in quicker conditions to make it more of a weapon when he lands his first delivery. We saw him really rack up wins last summer thanks to that improvement.

The dropshots and slices shouldn’t bother him since he gets around the court efficiently and has plenty of rally tolerance and with Lestienne being fairly unreliable with his form in recent months, I’m not sure why he’s still getting this much respect against a guy who has shown he is one of the better players at this level.

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Mattia Bellucci Recent Form

Bellucci did lose two of his first three matches of the 2025 season, but it’s hard for me to hold losses to Martin Landaluce and Terence Atmane against him. While neither may be all that well known to the larger tennis world, both the Spaniard and left-handed Frenchman have the explosive game to blow Bellucci off the court when they’re playing well and in quicker conditions in Australia, it becomes that much more possible.

I still think Bellucci has made strides in the last year or two and in a matchup a bit more favourable to him, we should see him settle down and get his form back on the right track.

Constant Lestienne Recent Form

The veteran hasn’t exactly started his season out in the most impressive fashion either. He elected to play the weaker Noumea Challenger, making the semifinals before bowing out to Moerani Bouzige as a 1.19 odds favourite and then retired in the opening round of qualifying in Melbourne against Vit Kopriva – once again as the match favourite.

Though he can match the solidity of Bellucci when he’s on, Lestienne is far more prone to stretches of poor play and more prolonged patches where he seems completely lost on court.

I’m also not a fan of his groundstrokes outside some of the touch he plays with. When your slices are sitting up or you’re missing your dropshots, you’d like to be able to have other ways to win points and I just don’t think Lestienne has shown that he can do that consistently anymore.

Mattia Bellucci vs Constant Lestienne H2H – Stat of the Match

The lone professional match these two played was really tight back in Olbia on the Challenger Tour last season. They shift from Bellucci’s home nation to Lestienne’s for this tilt, but I’d still have Bellucci winning it.

Similar styles to be sure, but for me Bellucci has improved in the last two years, Lestienne doesn’t seem to hold up as well physically and I do think Bellucci is the better player at this stage of their careers.

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