Mattia Bellucci vs Aslan Karatsev Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, 18/9/24

Our first preview of tonight’s overnight action from the two ATP tournaments in China comes from the Hangzhou Open in the Mattia Bellucci vs Aslan Karatsev match.

Karatsev’s win probability is up to over 45%, while Bellucci is slightly favored to win at 1.74 odds. The handicap is 1.5 games and the total games line is 23.

Jon Reid’s Bellucci vs Karatsev prediction is for Bellucci to win.

Mattia Bellucci vs Aslan Karatsev Prediction: In Form Italian’s Consistency to Trouble Volatile Karatsev

• Prediction: Bellucci to win
• Best Odds: 1.76
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds updated at 1:00 am UK Time on September 18th, 2024. 

Though Karatsev seems to be making strides in the right direction, I’m not quite sure I agree with the market movement that has seen Bellucci go from 1.62 at one point to the 1.76 price on offer at the time of writing.

There may have been an undervaluation of the big slugging Karatsev when he first returned from injury, but recently he’s been the clear favorite in many of his matches, beating some easier competition easily, but also losing outright a few times. Now, that’s not the case here, but once again, even when he’s an underdog, the market is showing an appetite to back him.

I will say, that I understand that we’re now onto quicker courts, where Karatsev’s power can be that much more imposing and where he can probably keep the rallies shorter, thus helping him minimize his unforced error count, but there’s a second player to evaluate, and Bellucci is a player that is coming off his best stretch as a professional player this past summer on hard courts and who has the rally tolerance to trouble Karatsev.

The US Open loss to Christopher O’Connell was in large part due to Bellucci struggling to find a way through the Aussie and how hard he found it to deal with the slices. With Karatsev, you don’t always have to find a way to hit through him as he’ll gift you points and he is far too aggressive to slice the ball on the backhand wing.

With this shift in price, I’ll get involved on the side of the world No. 108. As a bonus, if he wins this match, he’ll be within a handful of points of making his top-100 debut.

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Mattia Bellucci Recent Form

I mentioned the strong summer for the 23-year-old. Going back to Wimbledon, if we look at qualifying matches and main draw matches from the Challenger and main tours, Bellucci is an impressive 20-5.

Now, with this being an ATP Tour tournament, I’d normally discount the Challenger record, but he does have an opponent who has been playing at a level that isn’t that much higher than the Challenger Tour in recent times, and think those results are pertinent.

His serve has been clicking and he’s been winning far more points behind his first serve than most would expect from someone who is more variety and consistency-based. I love that consistency in this particular matchup as well, with Karatsev tending to be an error-prone guy from the baseline.

Aslan Karatsev Recent Form

Look, when Karatsev’s game is firing, there aren’t many players he won’t beat. The problem is, the occasions where he is redlining from start to finish and locked in for an entire match are few and far between these days.

The one-time top-15 players is now out of the top 100 and though I don’t think player rankings in head-to-head battles are all that relevant (or at least not as relevant as surface and matchup), it’s indicative of just how poor he’s been for the last year or so.

The firepower is there. The tactical play, tennis IQ, and any kind of second gear or dynamism to his game are not.

You can only blast your way to victory so often. To build sustainable win streaks, you need more than just power in the modern-day game. I’d love to see Karatsev add a bit more patience and variety, but I’m not holding my breath.

Mattia Bellucci vs Aslan H2H – Stat of the Match

Bellucci and Karatsev haven’t played before in a professional tournament.

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