Belinda Bencic vs Lauren Davis Mubadala Citi DC Open Preview and Expert Tip: Trust Bencic to Progress Comfortably

Belinda Bencic vs Lauren Davis (Mubadala Citi DC Open): Wednesday, August 2nd

Slow start for Tereza Martincova sank the handicap. Naturally, she comes back from a set down to win though. Always how it works.

For Wednesday, we’ll head back to the Mubadala Citi DC Open in the American capital for our WTA preview. Let’s take a deeper look into the Belinda Bencic vs Lauren Davis match.

Belinda Bencic vs Lauren Davis Expert Tip

The tennis that Bencic can put on display should be far too much for Davis. The American has done well to fight her way to this point in Washington, but this is a big step up in competition for her.

Bencic should have the physical edge, certainly has the talent edge and even statistically she is far superior – despite playing tougher opposition.

I’m happy to back her here on a handicap that I think is at least one game off.

Read on for more expert insights.

• Expert Tip: Bencic -4.5 Games at 2.02 with Unibet, using 8/10 stakes.

Belinda Bencic Recent Form

Back to the well with Bencic for her match against Davis. This time, however, we’re not going to have to deal with nearly the same potential for her opponent to find a purple patch just hit through her from the baseline.

The point made from Monday’s preview stands here, as I am still of the belief it takes someone really strong to beat Bencic – especially in quicker conditions where she’s at her best.

After playing just under a set of tennis on Monday, she should be well rested, and her style of taking the ball early should come in handy here against Davis who plays a relatively solid game and makes a lot of balls from the baseline.

Lauren Davis Recent Form

It’s been a nice run for Davis, who has battled her way to this point. She had to come through the qualifying draw, and played a pair of lengthy matches to reach the main draw. She was down a set in both of those wins.

In the opening round against Sloane Stephens, it was yet another three-set win, with Davis saving seven set points in the opener. That proved key as she would go on to lose the second.

She also likes quicker conditions, as she too hits a flatter ball. She doesn’t have the most powerful game, however. The serve is pretty average and from the baseline she doesn’t generate a lot of pace on her own, being more effective as a counterpuncher. She also has to hit her spots, as she can be hit off the court if she hits too centrally. That also means if she’s slightly off and is missing lines, she could see stretches where she’s committing errors.

Factor in the time on court from the aforementioned trio of lengthy contests, and I can also see Davis fading as the match wears on.

Belinda Bencic vs Lauren Davis – Stat of the Match

Outside of the fact that Bencic is just a much better counterpuncher, and physically should be far more fresh of the two in this one, statistically, we can see that she’s able to generate far more cheap points and construct holds of serve than her American opponent in this one.

Not only is Bencic better than Davis at the things Davis does well, but she also has more dimensions to her game. I don’t think she gets credit for how offensively she can play for a few reasons. First, she doesn’t have the head-turning power that players like Aryna Sabalenka or Elena Rybakina possess at the top end of the women’s game. The other is that her style dominates the conversation most of the time.

Consider this though, she has held serve nearly 80% of the time over the last 52 weeks on hard courts. That has been done behind a win rate on her first deliveries of about 71%. Those are both impressive metrics.

Davis has struggled more to hold her serve, clocking in at just 66% in the same time frame on hard courts. With Bencic actually matching her break rate, that is a significant statistical edge for the Swiss, to go with her superior talent.

Odds as at 7:00 am UK Time on August 2nd, 2023. Odds may now differ.

RESPONSIBLE GAMBLING

At bettingexpert, we always take a responsible approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Responsible Gambling hub.