Belinda Bencic vs Anastasia Potapova Mubadala Citi DC Open Preview and Expert Tip: Swiss Star Poised for Strong Week

Belinda Bencic vs Anastasia Potapova (Mubadala Citi DC Open): Monday, July 31st

It’s a busy month of tennis, as the tours shift the focus of their biggest events to North America, with several marquee events to come in the next months.

The WTA has a pair of stops this week, with some players opting to remain in Europe in Prague, and the main stars of the women’s circuit descending on Washington, D.C. to play the Mubadala Citi DC Open – a combined event the men’s tour.

For our first preview of the week, it’s Belinda Bencic vs Anastasia Potapova.

Belinda Bencic vs Anastasia Potapova Expert Tip

I’m going to back Bencic in this high-quality first round tilt from Washington. It’s not the easiest match for the Swiss, but I do think her game at the moment is more complete and her serve is stronger than Potapova’s, which is key on quicker courts.

Read on for more expert insights.

• Expert Tip: Bencic -2.5 Games at 1.96 with Pinnacle, using 4/10 stakes.

Belinda Bencic Recent Form

If we put her injury aside, Bencic has undoubtedly been one of the form players of the 2023 season. It’s a shame she didn’t have a chance to warm up for Wimbledon, as we saw what she was capable of doing there, having only played one match in nearly three months prior. Three wins at the year’s most prestigious event, and match points to upset the world No. 1 and reach the quarterfinals.

We know she has the talent – with a fairly strong serve serve and flat groundstrokes that have a bit of power and that she takes incredibly early to steal time from her opponents – and court speed preferences to make a run here.

The quality of player that it has taken to beat her this season is also rather high. Of her eight losses in 2023, five have come to players in the world’s top-6, and another at the French Open (on her worst surface) could very well have come at a time where she wasn’t playing at 100%.

Potapova may have the talent to topple her, but I’m weary of her inconsistency and second serve in this matchup.

Anastasia Potapova Recent Form

It’s been a breakout campaign for the 22-year-old Russian, who has seen her ranking move to around the top-25 range.

With a strong game from the baseline and improved rally tolerance and consistency, the ceiling on her game is certainly a high one.

Despite the success this year, however, there are still some aspects of her game that could use some polishing.

The second serve is still vulnerable and she does hit double faults a bit more often than she should if she’s to become a top player. She can still be a bit too volatile for stretches regarding unforced errors as well. It’s why she’s been able to rack up wins, but has struggled against the top-20, going just 3-6 this season.

Belinda Bencic vs Anastasia Potapova – Stat of the Match

.For our stat of the match, I want to look at the hold + break percentage of each of these two. It illustrates the gap in quality that still exists between them for me, as even the improved version of Potapova still trails Bencic.

Not only is Bencic’s first serve still stronger, but she’s able to break at a consistent pace, while holding serve herself far more often. In 2023, Bencic has a very strong 113.4% hold + break percentage, compared to Potapova’s, which sits at 105.5%. This, despite Bencic playing a much tougher slate of tournaments – Potapova has played a trio of 250-level events this season, which tend to draw weaker fields.

Odds as at 6:00 am UK Time on July 31st, 2023. Odds may now differ.

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