Roberto Bautista Agut vs Facundo Diaz Acosta Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, April 9th

Our second preview of the day features another match first up on court in Roberto Bautista Agut vs Facundo Diaz Acosta as the first round of the ATP Masters event in Monte Carlo wraps up. Diaz Acosta’s win probability is 47.2% while Bautista Agut is favored to win at 1.72 odds. The handicap is one game and the total game line is 22.5.

We have several other tennis previews and betting tips up from the Rolex Monte Carlo Masters over on the Expert Insights page!

Bautista Agut vs Diaz Acosta Prediction: Lucky Loser Undervalued in First-Round Clash

• Prediction: Diaz Acosta to win
• Best Odds: 2.24
• Bookmaker: Unibet
• Stakes: 10/10

Odds as of 1:30 am UK Time on April 9th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

This may be the worst price of the tennis season to date by my numbers. Now, to believe something is this far off, we have to be able to identify why that is, and why we disagree with the rationale. Otherwise, I’m likely the one missing something.

I think the qualifying campaigns of each of these two have a lot to do with the pricing here, along with the underlying data, which would point to this one being close. Perhaps those relying on the qualifying results and the elo ratings (more on that later) are correct and I’m wrong. As I said in the Alejandro Tabilo preview yesterday though, I’m willing to back my rationale with a larger stake.

I have Diaz Acosta as a favorite in this one, even with Bautista Agut’s backhand being strong enough to hold up against the Argentine’s heavy left-handed forehand.

The trajectory of these two, along with Diaz Acosta’s well-rounded game on the clay is too much to overlook for me against the fading veteran. Our Bautista Agut vs Diaz Acosta prediction is for Diaz Acosta to win.

Roberto Bautista Agut Recent Form

If you’re going to have a bet on the 35-year-old who is dangerously close to dropping out of the top 100, then you’re probably emphasizing the word “recent” in the title of this section in a big way.

Bautista Agut has not looked good this year, with his offensive abilities visibly declining. He managed to eke past a few Challenger players in Miami to qualify at that Masters event and barely clung on to the second set in the opening round there to beat Emilio Nava (who couldn’t convert a break point late to save his life). His match against Sebastian Korda in the next round was probably the highest-quality display he’s had this year, and even then he lost and couldn’t cover the handicap.

Sure, he’s qualified again here, but he did so against Dominic Thiem who has openly stated that his wrist isn’t close to being 100% healthy and has struggled mightily himself and then he beat Lorenzo Sonego who played a very long, physical match the day prior against another veteran in David Goffin on the heels of traveling from the Marrakech quarterfinals.

Needless to say, I’m not yet convinced. Taking on a younger player on the ascent and playing the best clay court tennis we’ve seen, this is a stern test for Bautista Agut and other than his name and experience, I can’t see why he would be listed as a favorite to come away with the win.

Facundo Diaz Acosta Recent Form

Though his last few weeks haven’t been his best, Diaz Acosta is certainly one to watch in the next few years on the clay courts (at least in qualifying and early rounds at big tournaments). I think he’ll be disappointed losing to Nicolas Moreno de Alboran in Marrakech, but his qualifying loss here to Sumit Nagal isn’t the worst. The Indian is another player on the rise, with incredible ball retrieval skills and defensive abilities, as well as a much-improved forehand. Nagal just upset the top-50 Matteo Arnaldi in the opening round, so that three-set loss isn’t the worst.

Against another underpowered veteran in the opening round of qualifying, he covered the game spread and dispatched Diego Schwartzman without much of a fuss, and his earlier results on clay courts in his native South America during the Golden Swing were spectacular. He made the quarterfinals in Cordoba, picked up his first career title in Buenos Aires, and one of the only two players to beat him was Sebastian Baez – currently part of the top 20.

He’s got a nice heavy forehand that can also generate pace, and while his serve doesn’t have an abundance of power, the way he can throw spin on it makes it tough to deal with on high-bouncing clay nonetheless. It certainly isn’t attackable, and with his physicality and fitness, I don’t think Bautista Agut is going to be able to simply try and wear him down.

Roberto Bautista Agut vs Facundo Diaz Acosta H2H – Stat of the Match

No prior meetings between the two, which isn’t surprising since Diaz Acosta is just getting to the main tour level now, while the Spanish veteran has been there for over a decade.

In terms of statistics, the elo ratings have this as a very tight match, with Diaz Acosta leading, but not by much (his raw clay elo number has a wider gap than the blended though).

As a betting man, I’d be willing to wager that since he’s clearly on the rise and Bautista Agut is on the decline, we’ll see that gap be even wider a year from now.

Safer Gambling

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.