Mona Barthel vs Selena Janicijevic Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 12/3/24

We’ll move to the WTA Tour’s 125k level for the rest of the week, as we have a pair of tournaments taking place with more liquidity and lower margins. Let’s start from the Open Angers Arena Loire and the Mona Barthel vs Selena Janicijevic match.

Janicijevic’s win probability is just above 40%, while Barthel is favoured to win at 1.59 odds. The handicap is 2.5 games and the total games line is 21.

Jon Reid’s Barthel vs Janicijevic prediction is for Barthel to cover the handicap.

Mona Barthel vs Selena Janicijevic Prediction: Back the Better Hard Courter in France

• Predictions: Barthel -2.5 Games & Barthel -3 Games
• Best Odds: 1.86 & 1.97
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10 & 2/10

Odds as at 1:00 am UK Time on December 3rd, 2024. Odds may now differ.

I’ll be the first to admit that I thought Barthel’s days as a competitive professional were behind her. At 34 years old, however, she’s proven me wrong in 2024, forcing her way back into the top-200 with a chance to reach the top-175 should she go deep this week in France.

I’m surprised the market has moved against her for a few reasons. The form is fine, she shouldn’t be fatigued and when it comes to the surface, she’s both more comfortable and natural on hard courts than the younger Janicijevic, with her game also suiting the quicker indoor courts.

She employs a flatter, aggressive style from the baseline that can really push opponents back and take their time away. It also helps her keep points short, which is key, considering errors were her downfall in 2023 and typically are what cost her matches.

Janicijevic has a decent serve herself, but I’m still not sold on her abilities indoors, where spin and grinding from the baseline aren’t as valuable. She’s lost more indoors than she’s won in her career, as well as this season.

I think the -3.5 games at a price of 1.88 was probably closer to correct. That’s where the market opened. I’ll take a stand against those who have pushed this down to -2.5 games and back the favourite.

More tennis previews can be found on the expert insights page.

Mona Barthel Recent Form

Barthel enters this week coming off a win in her last tournament. That was on home soil in Hamburg and at the ITF level, but it is encouraging form wise. To her credit, she also beat a Sonay Kartal who has seemed nearly invincible in 2024 on hard courts at the ITF level and Barbora Palicova prior to that – a bit hitting Czech prospect that has finally taken the step forward this season that many had been expecting.

Now, there’s still a reason she’s outside of the top-150. Several losses to lesser players in terms of ability are among the reasons, and that aggressive, flatter style I mentioned earlier does result in plenty of netted balls.

Later in the week, we may look for a spot to oppose her against someone that is more natural on hard courts and not quite as volatile as she is, but for this round, I do think she’s worth backing.

Selena Janicijevic Recent Form

Not only does Janicijevic’s style not really suit quicker conditions, but she’s also really struggled of late.

Whether on hard courts way back during the U.S. Open qualifying week or since then on her preferred red dirt, Janicijievic hasn’t managed to make a quarterfinal at a tournament since July.

I caught a few of her matches down in South America against extremely steady baseliners in Emiliana Arango and Darja Semenistaja and I didn’t come away impressed. Those were both three setters, but against weaker fields and opponents who lack any kind of weapons, those aren’t encouraging results.

I’m not one to put much stock into exhibition or club tennis events, but Janicijevic’s only matches on indoor hard courts this year took place at the French Championships, with one win against a fellow clay courter in Arantxa Rus and the others being fairly routine losses against more proficient hard court players.

Mona Barthel vs Selena Janicijevic H2H – Stat of the Match

This is the first time these two have met.

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