Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera vs Gilbert Klier Junior Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 11/28/24

Well, some no-name underdogs are barking this week, but I’m still going to look to oppose some of these players that are fewer than five games on the handicap. The next such opportunity comes from the ATP Challenger in Chile at the Challenger Dove Men+Care Temuco.

Let’s look at Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera vs Gilbert Klier Junior.

Klier Junior’s win probability is only 28.5%, while Barrios Vera is favoured to win at 1.30 odds. The handicap is 4.5 games and the total games line is 21.

Jon Reid’s Barrios Vera vs Klier Junior prediction is for Barrios Vera to cover the handicap.

Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera vs Gilbert Klier Junior Prediction: Barrios Vera to Cruise on Home Soil

• Prediction: Barrios Vera -4.5 Games
• Best Odds: 2.10
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as at 2:00 am UK Time on November 28th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

I mentioned earlier that a handicap under five games would warrant a bet from me. That was obviously meant at a traditional 1.90 price. Well, getting a -4.5 to bet at 2.10 is a must-bet for me. I’ve upped the staking a little bit here, even though that can be risky in men’s tennis on a hard court.

Barrios Vera is a bona fide Challenger Tour player, while Klier Junior has been in terrible form, gone from the game for a long period and even playing well has traditionally been a middling ITF Tour calibre kind of player.

His wins this week are throwaways in my mind, coming against no one of significance, and certainly not anyone comparable to his opponent on Thursday.

Sure, his first serve may be able to net him a few points, or the occasionally-erratic Chilean may misfire a bit too much on the day, but the likelihood of a blowout far surpasses that of a close match or upset for me.

More tennis previews can be found on the expert insights page.

Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera Recent Form

Since getting back to South America last month, the 26-year-old is looking to reach his third quarterfinal in five attempts at Challenger tournaments, and potentially go even further.

His losses have all either come to guys that are borderline tour-level pros or to players that are having career-best seasons and firmly entrenched on the secondary circuit and capable of going deep any given week.

Thursday he plays an opponent who is far from that and who isn’t strong enough from the baseline to keep up with Barrios Vera. This is also a redemption opportunity for the world No. 162 on home soil, as he’s lost to his counterpart before and the win he had was a super close one a few years back.

Perhaps the third time’s a charm and this is the time Barrios Vera finally showcases his superiority in the talent department in this matchup.

Gilbert Klier Junior Recent Form

This week has seen the Brazilian quadruple his win total from one to four with a pair of qualifying wins and then the first round victory here.

He had just one win in ten matches played this season and yet, was somehow the favourite in each of his three matches in Temuco prior to Thursday. That speaks more to the level of the players he beat than anything, with Thursday representing a big step up in competition.

He’ll likely need a big serving day (as he has in the past against the Chilean) to keep things close in this one.

Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera vs Gilbert Klier Junior H2H – Stat of the Match

These two have played twice, and Barrios Vera has yet to cover this handicap. Might dissuade some people – especially with one of those matches being an outright win for Klier Junior here in Temuco last year – but I still think the gulf between these two on a more macro scale is at least five games and worth a wager.

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