Hailey Baptiste vs Rebecca Sramkova Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, April 23rd

The final preview of the day from the Mutua Madrid Open looks at Hailey Baptiste vs Rebecca Sramkova from the WTA’s qualifying draw.

Sramkova’s win probability comes in at 50.8% while Baptiste is favored to win at 1.85 odds. The handicap is 0.5 games and the total games line is 21.5.

For more daily tennis tips, visit the bettingexpert community, but if you want more expert tips from Jon Reid, visit our Expert Insights section.

Our Baptiste vs Sramkova prediction is for Baptiste to win.

Baptiste vs Sramkova Prediction

• Prediction: Baptiste to win
• Best Odds: 1.85
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 4/10

Odds as at 1:30 am UK Time on April 23rd, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Surprised to see these odds where they are with the two players involved. Even taking Baptiste’s penchant for throwing in poor sets and matches, she shouldn’t be the slightest of favorites to come away with the win.

She has a very strong serve to take advantage of the thinner air, she can hit from the baseline, she’s the better mover between the two and has far more variety than her Slovakian opponent, who plays a more one-dimensional game and can commit a slew of errors in her own right.

Hailey Baptiste Recent Form

It was a slow start to her qualifying campaign against a local wild card, but after a disappointing 2-6 start, Baptiste was dominant, losing just three games in the final two sets.

Her other clay matches came at altitude venues as well, with second-round appearances in Bogota and San Luis Potosi. Even that loss in Colombia should be asterisked, with a lot of rain leading to a late, late start against Marie Bouzkova and a Baptiste that looked incredibly unmotivated to be playing tennis well into the night.

The American has the variety that should make her more competitive on these courts than many of her compatriots, even if we haven’t seen the breakthrough just yet.

She hits effective slices and is adept at hitting the drop shot. That gives her multiple ways to win points along with her big serve and strong forehand.

Rebecca Sramkova Recent Form

Sramkova may have a decent game and may be capable of playing some front-foot tennis, but she lacks dimensions to her game and still hits her fair share of errors and that’s why she’s been stuck at the ITF level for a long time.

Even this clay season has seen her pick up some relatively unimpressive wins, including the first round of qualifying here, where she won after taking the first set 7-6 from 2-5 down against a hobbled Clara Tauson, who would retire after that tiebreak.

Could she be competitive if she has a decent serving day and can limit the unforced error count? Sure. Do I think she deserves to be valued as someone who wins nearly half the time? No.

Hailey Baptiste vs Rebecca Sramkova H2H – Stat of the Match

No prior meetings to assess between these two.

Elo rating isn’t impressive for either, but even with a sub-1,600 rating in blended clay elo, the American checks in about 40 points higher than Sramkova.

With a more tour-level pedigree in recent times and a more well-rounded game, I’m happy to side with her at what I think is a pretty cheap price.

Safer Gambling

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.