Sebastian Baez vs Chun Hsin Tseng Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 2/21/25

Our final match preview of the week comes from the Rio Open as we delve into the match featuring the defending champion, Sebastian Baez vs Chun Hsin Tseng.

Tseng’s win probability is only a tad above 25%, while Baez is favoured to win at 1.29 odds. The handicap is 4.5 games and the total games line is 20.5.

Jon Reid’s Baez vs Tseng prediction is for Baez to win comfortably.

Sebastian Baez vs Chun Hsin Prediction: Tseng’s Cinderella Story to End in Quarterfinal Contest

• Prediction: Baez -4.5 Games
• Best Odds: 2.10
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stakes: 6/10

Odds as at 11:45 pm UK Time on February 20th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

I suppose I’ll go down with this ship. Having watched Thiago Monteiro play Tseng the other night, I simply cannot devise how on earth a Challenger player with no weapons and a second serve that is begging to be pulverised has managed to reach the quarterfinals of an ATP 500 tournament.

Long matches, error prone opponents, whatever the case may be, I think he’s a bit in over his head on Friday against the defending champion and someone who won’t give him very many errors from the baseline.

As an elite returner, Baez should be able to start far more points (Monteiro’s refusal to adjust his return position as Tseng continued to serve wide on both sides with his first delivery was a sight to behold) against the first serve and is likely to win well over 60% of his second serve return points as well.

He’s a better version of Tseng and as long as his serve can hold up (it’s a bit weak as he’s undersized and underpowered), he should be running away with this match. Tseng is a strong returner, but he does lack power, so I’m not sure just how many points on return he’ll manage to seize control of.

I have this number closer to -5.5 than -5, giving me the green light to go larger on a very cheap -4.5-game handicap.

More tennis previews can be found on the expert insights page.

Sebastian Baez Recent Form

It was a slow start to the year for Baez, who was pretty poor in quicker hard court conditions, as one would expect, before getting back to winning ways on clay.

There were some concerns even as he got back to the red dirt of South America though, with the 24-year-old, as he lost from a set up at a Challenger as a strong favourite and then was sent packing last week in Buenos Aires as a favourite again by Thiago Seyboth Wild.

It seems as though Rio de Janeiro is a source of comfort for him, though. After winning the title last year, he’s now back into the quarters and is a huge favourite both in the markets in any matchup analysis one conducts to reach the final four once more.

He doesn’t have an imposing game, but he’s incredibly consistent, works the full dimensions of the court with aplomb and does hit with enough spin to push opponents back.

Finally, he has the physicality to exploit Tseng’s long matches this week. Yes, the Taiwanese has had days off between his matches, but I’m still not sold on him being able to hold up if this one creeps over two hours once again, especially against tour level opposition that can make him work and deplete his energy reserves.

Chun Hsin Tseng Recent Form

Suffice it to say, Tseng has come out of absolutely nowhere this week. Other than beating a clay court specialist from the lower tours on a fast hard court in Australian Open qualifying, Tseng hadn’t won a match at any level since the fall prior to the qualifying draw this week.

Even then, he needed close third sets to beat a pair of Challenger opponents, beat someone that was in as poor form as he was and then had to come back from a set and break down to win a marathon (that ended well past 2:30 am locally in Rio de Janeiro) against an erratic Monteiro.

Yeah, the form isn’t fooling me. The weaponless game and really vulnerable second serve are too much to overcome at this level on a consistent basis. That’s even more true as you progress through the main draws of ATP Tour events and face sterner tests.

I’ll happily oppose him again.

Sebastian Baez vs Chun Hsin Tseng H2H – Stat of the Match

Tseng does have a win against Baez. It’s the only match they’ve played one another. That was back in 2020, however. Needless to say, this is a different Baez. Back in 2020, the diminutive Argentine’s best ranking was 309th in the world.

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