Felix Auger Aliassime vs Andrea Vavassori Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 2/5/25

Our first preview of the day comes from the ATP’s ABN AMRO Open in the Netherlands. Let’s look at Felix Auger Aliassime vs Andrea Vavassori to see if the Canadian can keep his hot streak going.

Vavassori’s win probability is only 12%, while Auger Aliassime is favoured to win at 1.10 odds. The handicap is 4.5 games and the total games line is 20.5.

Jon Reid’s Auger Aliassime vs Vavassori prediction is for Vavassori to be more competitive than these odds imply.

Felix Auger Aliassime vs Andrea Vavassori Prediction: Auger Aliassime Form Creating Slight Overvaluation in Market

• Prediction: Over 20.5 Games
• Best Odds: 1.94
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 2/10

Odds as at 12:30 am UK Time on February 5th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

I understand Auger Aliassime has won two titles already this season. I also acknowledge he’s the better player in this contest. That said, giving him credit against a half-decent server to this extent is going a bit far. Right now, the market has him winning this match 90% of the time. I’m not sure there’s anyone in men’s tennis I’d trust to win a match – even against a guy that plies his trade primarily at the Challenger level – 90% of the time on an indoor hard court that isn’t names Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz, Alexander Zverev or Novak Djokovic.

It’s worth noting that a lot of Auger Aliassime’s matches have been pretty close and that he’s struggled to really seize control of matches and beat his opposition soundly.

We’ll go over his form in a minute, but suffice it to say, he’s vastly improved his performance in big moments and close matches, since his level has seemed as inconsistent within matches as ever, and he’s managed to rack up almost a third of his career titles in the last month.

Vavassori can look unreal at times when he’s landing his first serve and getting to net behind it quickly, but there’s a major lack of baseline play that is concerning. I’d have no issue making him a 4.00 or 5.00 underdog here. Being nearly 8.50 is just a bit too much for me though.

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Felix Auger Aliassime Recent Form

There’s no denying that Auger Aliassime is playing well. One doesn’t win two titles in a month – even 250s – without playing some good tennis. The question isn’t about whether or not he’s good or whether or not he’s playing well. The question has to be “is he playing well enough to deserve this respect?”

For me, the answer is not quite. Sure, he’s 10-2. Yet he’s blown a massive lead against Borna Coric who has been downright awful for nearly two years. He had close matches with Arthur Cazaux (twice), Jesper de Jong and Aleksandar Kovacevic, while also benefiting from Sebastian Korda fading physically in a final.

That’s a lot of relevant context that needs to be added to his stellar record so far in 2025.

Don’t get me wrong, as a Canadian tennis fan, it’s good to see him succeeding, and more importantly, it shows that even as his tennis still has a more consistent level it can reach he can win ATP Tour titles.

I’d just prefer another close two set encounter or three set tilt in this instance.

Andrea Vavassori Recent Form

This is the first tournament of the year for the Italian. He managed to get through qualifying without dropping a set, but suffice it to say, we’re not going to really pump his tires for beating Niels Visker and Geoffrey Blancaneaux. The only takeaway that should be had from those matches is that he was criminally undervalued by the betting markets in the second match against a clay courter that is incredibly underpowered.

In fact, this is just his second tournament since U.S. Open qualifying, with a home soil Challenger in Olbia seeing him reach the quarterfinals where he lost to highly-touted prospect Martin Landaluce from 6-2 up.

I don’t mind the form, as little as there is to look at, and I do think he has the serve to keep him close to Auger Aliassime.

Felix Auger Aliassime vs Andrea Vavassori H2H – Stat of the Match

This is the first time these two have met on the tennis court.

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