Felix Auger Aliassime vs Lorenzo Sonego Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, April 10th

The action from the ATP’s Rolex Monte Carlo Masters continues on Wednesday with another batch of matches coming thick and fast fairly early in the day. We’ll start our day with our Auger Aliassime vs Sonego prediction in a match that sees the Italian step in for Carlos Alcaraz, who was forced to withdraw with his arm giving him issues.

Sonego’s win probability is only 36.4% while Auger Aliassime is favoured to win at 1.44 odds. The handicap is three games and the total game line is 22.5.

We have more tips for Wednesday’s tennis over on the Expert Insights page.

Auger Aliassime vs Sonego Prediction: Sonego to Keep Things Close

• Prediction: Sonego to win
• Best Odds: 2.72
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as of 1:45 am UK Time on April 10th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

I’m not going to sit here and tell you I have no idea why Sonego is such an underdog. His 2024 has not been good by any stretch of the imagination. Then again, neither has Auger Aliassime’s. Not to mention, these two guys have similar styles, with the Canadian’s strengths being better, but his lack of comfort on clay and inconsistency issues with his forehand also being more vulnerable.

I don’t think I’d say Sonego should be a coin flip, but I certainly believe he should only be a slight underdog in a matchup of two strong servers, yet error-prone players. Our Auger Aliassime vs Sonego prediction is for Sonego to win. 

Felix Auger Aliassime Recent Form

With Auger Aliassime being such a large favorite on his worst surface, one would think that he’d have to have a fairly large form advantage entering this contest.

His serve and forehand should find him points on any surface, but it’s the number of cheap points that gets reduced as the surface speed slows. Yet the world No. 35 hasn’t been very good this year. He hasn’t been very good from a macro standpoint for quite some time.

Other than beating a pair of young Frenchmen and having a bye in Montpellier to reach the semifinals (and he needed a third-set tiebreak to even win his first match there), there isn’t a single result that would impress. There isn’t even another quarterfinal to be found, and that’s with most of the season so far being played in quicker conditions.

With a volatile forehand and a penchant for spraying errors, slow courts are not his friend and deep runs are hard to come by. Some may point to his forehand looking very good against Luca Nardi. I’d counter with the fact that 1) that’s a one-match sample and recency bias may be an issue and 2) we haven’t seen him string together two consecutive matches with that forehand looking both powerful and solid in months.

I don’t know whether he wins or loses this match, but I know these odds are too flattering.

Lorenzo Sonego Recent Form

The primary reason Auger Aliassime is such a large favorite has to be the form of the 28-year-old from Turin.

Sonego is just 6-11 on the season, with an uninspiring win against a declining David Goffin in the first round of qualifying and then a bad loss against Roberto Bautista Agut. Now, coming off playing in Marrakech and then that lengthy match against the Belgian, I wonder if his legs were a bit heavy.

Some of the other losses this year were matches the Italian did manage to keep close. He put in a respectable effort in Australia against Alcaraz, took Daniil Medvedev three sets in Dubai and only lost by a single break of serve to the likes of Grigor Dimitrov and Sebastian Korda. Those are all talented players and include two of the top 5 and one of the form players of the last year.

I think he’s certainly got room for improvement, but I’m also not sure that he’s been as bad as his record would indicate and with a big serve and forehand combination of his own and a more spin-heavy game to suit the clay, I certainly think he’s even more likely to keep this one close than the ones he did earlier this season.

Throw in the potential for the crowd to buoy him (the crowds always feature a raucous atmosphere and plenty of support for Italian players) and I like his chances.

Auger Aliassime vs Sonego H2H – Stat of the Match

Auger Aliassime leads the head-to-head between these two 2-1, and, oddly enough, he has the win in the lone clay match back in 2020 in Hamburg.

The most recent meeting came last season in Dubai and went to Sonego, in conditions that you’d think would favor the younger of the two a bit more.

Even the elo ratings, which favor Auger Aliassime a bit more despite the fact he’s won very few matches in clay since 2022, would indicate that Auger Aliassime shouldn’t be this large of a favorite.

Whatever the reason for the overvaluation, I’ll gladly oppose it.

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