Felix Auger Aliassime vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 1/14/25

Our other preview from Tuesday night’s action from the Australian Open looks at Felix Auger Aliassime vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina.

Davidovich Fokina’s win probability is only 28%, while Auger Aliassime is favoured to win at 1.33 odds. The handicap is five games and the total games line is 36.5.

Jon Reid’s Auger Aliassime vs Davidovich Fokina prediction is for Davidovich Fokina to push the mercurial Canadian.

Felix Auger Aliassime vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Prediction: Explosive but Temperamental Spaniard Enticing at Over 3.50 Odds

• Prediction: Over 3.5 Sets
• Best Odds: 1.69
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 2/10

Odds as at 4:30 am UK Time on January 14th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

I always love betting the over sets market in matches with lopsided odds when it comes to who wins the match. Throw in a pair of error prone and volatile players and I like it even more.

Davidovich Fokina is live to pull off this upset, but doing it in straight sets when he has to win three of them? Incredibly unlikely. On the flip side of the coin, is there any way I’m trusting Auger Aliassime to win a match against a talented player like Davidovich Fokina with the way he can lose the plot at any moment – especially on the backhand side? Not a chance.

I also think the set markets for Davidovich Fokina and potentially the Davidovich Fokina to win markets are worth looking at, but I’ll stick with this to be a four or five set affair for our bet.

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Felix Auger Aliassime Recent Form

The Canadian has started his season in successful fashion, winning the title last week in Adelaide. His United Cup experience went decently as well. Sure, he blew a dominant lead to Borna Coric, but he did manage to turn around and beat Taylor Fritz right after.

From there it was a one-way ticket to titletown in South Australia before embarking on his journey in Melbourne.

Problem is, very few of his wins have been convincing. His loss saw him play his best tennis, before playing absolutely horrible tennis – all within the same match. That isn’t all that uncommon with him either.

His only win in straight sets en route to lifting the trophy in Adelaide came against Marcos Giron and he had to save a slew of break points to win that in a tiebreak.

The next step for Auger Aliassime is to make his game more repeatable when he’s riding those waves of success. Until then, it’s simply too hard to trust him as a big favourite against talented players.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Recent Form

Won’t spend too much time parsing through the form of the world No. 66 for a few reasons. The first is that he’s one of those players where form simply isn’t that important. His level on any given day could be that of a top-10 player or that of someone that belongs in a Challenger 50 draw.

His season in just four matches already reflects that in a way. He lost from a set up to a clay courter who can wear you down and elicit unforced errors at an elite rate. He looked great against a wily veteran who is pretty decent in quicker conditions. He lost to a young talent that is always capable of going deep and then he was handling a great youngster on the rise in the opening round before he retired.

Davidovich Fokina isn’t all that trustworthy either, but in matches like this, I always prefer to back the talented, but volatile player at 3.60 odds than the talented player that is volatile in the 1.33 region.

In this case, I likely just need one good set from Davidovich Fokina and I have more time to get it.

Felix Auger Aliassime vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina H2H – Stat of the Match

Auger Aliassime leads the series 5-0, but it’s worth noting that 40% of those matchups have gone over the minimum number of sets and one of the three straight sets victories was seven years ago on clay at the Challenger level.

At the moment, I’d expect a long match.

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