Felix Auger Aliassime vs Taro Daniel Prediction, Expert Picks, Odds, H2H, April 18th

The final preview for Thursday comes from the BMW Open, where – thanks to the weather – we have a lot of bets. The ATP 250 has Felix Auger Aliassime vs Taro Daniel for a spot in Friday’s quarterfinals. Our Auger Aliassime vs Daniel prediction is for Daniel to win a set & to win the match.

Daniel’s win probability is only 31.3% while Auger Aliassime is favored to win at 1.36 odds. The handicap is 3.5 games and the total games line is 21.5.

Auger Aliassime vs Daniel Prediction: Auger Aliassime Overvalued Again After Escape in Opening Match

• Prediction: Over 21.5 Games, Daniel +1.5 sets & Daniel to win
• Best Odds: 1.88, 1.83 & 3.20
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle, Pinnacle & Bet365
• Stakes: 2/10, 2/10 & 1/10

Odds as at 2:30 am UK Time on April 18th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Auger Aliassime does have not the rally tolerance or patience for slower conditions, he hasn’t had any notable results on clay in almost two years, he’s out of form, and with the weather likely to slow conditions even more, I’m not sure why he continues to be priced up as this large of a favorite.

Our expert insights page has even more tennis previews for you to check out!

Felix Auger Aliassime Recent Form

We haven’t seen much of anything from the Canadian in quite some time. He hasn’t won back-to-back wins since Montpellier a couple of months ago and the last time he had a decent run on clay beating decent clay players was back in 2022 at the French Open.

As I mentioned above, he barely got past an out-of-form Marterer as a huge favorite in the opening round and was overvalued last week against a better clay courter in Lorenzo Sonego (who wasn’t in form either).

I think the market wants to believe in a young player who has shown signs of brilliance and has a well-rounded game when it’s at its best in the past. Presently, however, he simply isn’t deserving of these kinds of implied probabilities.

Taro Daniel Recent Form

Now, Daniel hasn’t been in any kind of form either, but it’s not like players have needed to be playing their best in recent times to push Auger Aliassime.

The slower the conditions, the more I like Daniel, and with the temperature and expected precipitation in Munich this week, I like Daniel a lot.

His grinding game is well suited to extract errors from the erratic Auger Aliassime groundstrokes and though he’s only won twice since making the final in Auckland, he does tend to be a rhythm player and that first win against Chris O’Connell was a decent performance.

Let’s see if Daniel, like several others, can exploit the poor play of Auger Aliassime and keep him searching for solutions on the court.

Felix Auger Aliassime vs Taro Daniel H2H – Stat of the Match

Auger Aliassime won the lone meeting against Daniel, losing just one game in that encounter. The problem is that it came seven years ago, and it’s tough to trust that the current iteration of Auger Aliassime is in the form to put forth such a dominant performance.

I’m not huge on Daniel’s streaky nature form-wise, but I do think that with a decent first serve of his own, he may be able to keep things close and his grinding style from the baseline should afford him a path to victory when Auger Aliassime’s forehand starts misfiring.

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