Aryna Sabalenka vs Paula Badosa Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, Stats - 1/23/25

Aryna Sabalenka and Paula Badosa will meet in the semifinals of the Australian Open and the World’s #1 is a heavy favorite to reach a third consecutive final. 

At odds over -400, the two-time defending champion expected to ease past Badosa into the finals but the Spaniard has other ideas.

Paula Badosa provided a big surprise upsetting Coco Gauff in the quarters, so what can we expect today at Melbourne Park?

EJ Garr’s prediction for Aryna Sabalenka vs. Paula Badosa features odds at -105 which you can find below.

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Aryna Sabalenka vs Paula Badosa WTA Australian Open Prediction: Spaniard Eyeing Another Upset

• Prediction: Paula Badosa +4.5 Games
• Best Odds: -105
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as of 7:00 am UK Time on January 22, 2025. Odds may now differ.

Paula Badosa put together a tremendous effort against Coco Gauff in the quarterfinals of the Australian Open and now the Spaniard faces another big test against World #1, Aryna Sabalenka.

While Sabalenka has her sights set on a third straight Australian Open title, Paula Badosa is on the verge of a top 10 appearance in the WTA Rankings and is back in the best shape of her life.

The back injuries for Badosa are far in the rear-view mirror now and the Spaniard is two wins away from hoisting a Major piece of hardware.

While Coco Gauff is usually the one with the crowd behind her, Badosa used the Melbourne Park fans and let them all know how much she appreciated it at the end of the match. Badosa’s serve was in check and it started with the first set. At 5- 5, Badosa provided the first break of serve and went up 6 – 5 before closing the set on serve to win it, 7 – 5. 

Badosa withstood the comeback and broke Coco three more times in the second set to land the win and we enjoyed that around here with the +4.5 on the Spaniard to cover.

Badosa won the game count 13 – 9 and we have a similar line today with Badosa getting +4.5 games against the World’s #1.

Sabalenka was pushed to three sets against Pavlyuchenkova and we covered that +6 as well.

Take the +4.5 handicap with Badosa at -105 to cover.

ARYNA SABALENKA RECENT FORM

Aryna Sabalenka has won 12 straight outings including the two one-set wins at the WTL.

Sabalenka hoisted the Adelaide hardware in preparation for the Australian Open and can be one of six ladies to win three consecutive at the Major since the Open Era.

PAULA BADOSA RECENT FORM

Paula Badosa is 5 – 0 at Melbourne Park and the 2025 campaign started rough The Spaniard lost her only appearance at the WTL and was defeated in the first round at Brisbane before going 1 – 1 at Adelaide.

Badosa is climbing toward the top 10 of the WTA rankings, a place she has not been since the 2021 campaign.

The Spaniard went 37 – 19 last season with a winning record on all three surfaces. Badosa won a title in Washington DC that started the North American swing.

SABALENKA VS BADOSA HTH –  STAT OF THE MATCH

Sabalenka and Badosa have met eight times on the WTA Tour and the former has dominated the series recently.

With a 6 – 2 record against Badosa, Sabalenka has won the last six meetings including four clashes during the 2024 campaign.

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