Aryna Sabalenka vs Mirra Andreeva Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, May 1st

The quarterfinals have arrived from the Mutua Madrid Open! The marquee matchup of the WTA matches for Thursday features Aryna Sabalenka vs Mirra Andreeva in a battle between one of the world’s best and one of the women’s game’s top prospects.

Andreeva’s win probability is only 38% while Sabalenka is favoured to win at 1.54 odds. The handicap is 3.5 games and the total games line is 21.5.

Our Sabalenka vs Andreeva prediction is for Sabalenka to cover the games handicaps.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Mirra Andreeva (Mutua Madrid Open) Prediction: Veteran Too Powerful for Burgeoning Star

• Predictions: Sabalenka -3 Games & -3.5 Games
• Best Odds: 1.83 & 1.94
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 2/10 & 2/10

Odds as at 12:00 am UK Time on May 1st, 2024. Odds may now differ.

There’s something about Madrid that seems to suit the teenager from Russia. Her first serve is impressive but gains a bit more in the thinner air and her trouble dictating play without committing as many errors as she has in recent times.

That said, she’s taking on another player who loves the conditions in the Spanish capital and is one of the three elite players on the WTA circuit, even if she’s been struggling of late with some bad habits that many thought were a thing of the past on court.

Sabalenka has the tools to overpower Andreeva and break her with enough regularity that I think this handicap has to be the other side of four. Firing on all cylinders, there’s no doubt in my mind that she would be either a 4.5 or five-game favourite. I’m not sure Andreeva’s done enough to bring this down to what works out to a 3.25-game handicap when we split out stake.

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Aryna Sabalenka Recent Form

I don’t think there’s any denying that Sabalenka isn’t playing her best tennis at the moment.

The error-prone, double-faulting, overly aggressive play that struggled to break through at the grand slam level a few years ago seems to have crept back into her game.

She has just two straight-set wins since triumphing in Melbourne for the second year running, but I still can’t believe that in this particular matchup where she shouldn’t be rushed, that she should only be this small of a favourite.

The power and service advantage should be fairly large, and as well as her opponent can scramble in this match, I think a lot of the defensive play ends up being put back into the centre of the court. That can still draw some unforced errors, to be sure, but it’s not as likely to elicit mistakes as counterpunching that pace into the outer thirds of the court (as Marketa Vondrousova was able to do in the last preview I wrote up favouring Sabalenka).

Even this week, the win over Magda Linette is a bit disappointing, but the Pole has been in unusually strong form on clay in recent weeks. Her win against American youngster Robin Montgomery may have taken three sets, but it was still by a six-game margin and then she came back from a set down to beat Danielle Collins, who was on a 15-match win streak.

Then there’s the fact that Sabalenka has always seemed to enjoy the conditions in Madrid – unlike Jelena Ostapenko who we backed to win earlier in the week. She’s won the tournament in two of the last three years and is once more into the quarters here coming off a comeback win against one of the most in-form players in tennis.

Mirra Andreeva Recent Form

As much as Andreeva stormed onto the scene last season in Madrid and then backed it up at the French Open and Wimbledon, her season since reaching the second week of the Australian Open hasn’t been smooth sailing either.

Poor losses to Peyton Stearns and Katie Volynets were surprising to the tennis world in Dubai and Indian Wells and after a period off she did reach the quarterfinals in Rouen, France, but once more lost as a favourite.

There is no doubt that for a teenager, she has incredible talent. Consistent qualifying runs at grand slams and runs in main draws at that level are not possible without phenomenal talent at that age.

Thing is, she’s still a tad underpowered – and that’s to be expected – which isn’t a big deal against many players. Against someone at the very top of the women’s game though? Not as easy to overcome.

We’ll see if she can play her best and extract the errors we’ve seen become more commonplace from Sabalenka’s game, but in terms of probabilities? I have her losing this one by a fair margin more often than not.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Mirra Andreeva H2H – Stat of the Match

These two played one another last season at his tournament, with Sabalenka brushing the youngster aside in straight sets. Now, she’s not in the same form she was then and you could make the case that Andreeva’s serve is a tad better and might find her a few more points and holds of serve.

Even still, I don’t think the matchup has shifted enough in the young gun’s favour for me to believe that this is only going to be a three or four game Sabalenka victory.

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