Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, Stats - 3/14/25

Aryna Sabalenka and Madison Keys almost expect to face each other late in big events, and that will be the case for the semi-finalists at the BNP Paribas Open on Friday.

A trip to the finals at Indian Wells is in the balance, and we have a rematch from the Australian Open where Madison Keys earned a three-set victory over the World’s #1.

EJ Garr’s prediction for Aryna Sabalenka vs. Madison Keys features odds at +125, which can be found below.

For more expert tennis predictions, visit Expert Insights!

Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys WTA BNP Paribas Open Prediction: The Rematch: We’re Going The Distance

• Prediction: Match Total Over 2.5 Sets
• Best Odds: +125
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as of 7:00 am UK Time on March 14, 2025. Odds may now differ.

For the second time this year, Aryna Sabalenka and Madison Keys will face each other on a big stage after the finals clash at the Australian Open on January 25.

Madison Keys upset the World’s #1 as a +300 underdog with a trophy at stake at the first Major Tournament of the 2025 campaign. Sabalenka had won four of the previous five meetings with Keys going into that grand finale, and three sets were needed to push the American to the title.

I foresee a similar match with another big stage set and a finals appearance at Indian Wells in the balance. Keys came out of the gate aggressive and won the first set convincingly against Sabalenka in Australia. Sabalenka responded with an equal undisputed second set win and the final frame went to Keys, 7 – 5.

Sabalenka looked in her usual good form last night against Samsonova, covering the -4.5 games easily with the straight-sets win over her compatriot, 6 – 2, 6 – 3. The pivotal point in that match came in the second set with Samsonova serving to level the set at 4 – 4. Sabalenka broke her serve, and Samsonova never recovered.

Madison Keys made Belinda Bencic look pretty bad yesterday, and that hasn’t been easy to do against the Swiss native. I thought she might sweep that opening set, but she must have felt bad and gave Bencic one game before wiping her out again in the second set, 6 – 1. Just, ouch!

We’re going the distance in both semifinal affairs at the BNP Paribas Open, so buckle up for a long day at Indian Wells.

ARYNA SABALENKA RECENT FORM

Aryna Sabalenka prepared for the Australian Open with a title run at Brisbane to begin the 2025 campaign.

Sabalenka won 13 straight outings starting the two WTL appearances in December, and the loss to Keys in the Australian Open final ended that streak.

After a strange loss to Alexandrova to open Doha, another loss to Clara Tauson in Dubai wasn’t the best way to enter this WTA1000 event. Four straight wins have Sabalenka feeling better about her game, and exacting some revenge against Keys for the Major loss is all that’s on her mind today!

Sabalenka is 15 – 3 to start the 2025 campaign. 

MADISON KEYS RECENT FORM

Madison Keys had no right beating Sabalenka as a +300 underdog in the Australian Open finals. The American didn’t listen to any of that noise and took down the World’s #1 to claim her first title 

Keys topped out at 21st in the WTA Rankings last year due to the late start, and only playing in 36 matches (24 – 12).

The American is 17 – 1 in 2025 with an Adelaide and Australian Open trophy on the mantle, and two more wins at Indian Wells would be icing on the cake. 

SABALENKA VS KEYS HTH –  STAT OF THE MATCH

Aryna Sabalenka holds a 4 – 2 edge in the series with Madison Keys, but the American won their most recent clash at this year’s Australian Open. 

They first met in 2018 at Cincinnati, and Sabalenka earned an easy straight-sets win in the quarterfinals.

Three years later on the grass of Berlin, Keys leveled the series, 1 – 1, with a three-set victory.

In 2023, two Major victories at Wimbledon and the US Open went to Sabalenka, and she won their only meeting last year in Beijing.  

SAFER GAMBLING

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.