Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, Stats - 1/25/25

It all comes down to this as Aryna Sabalenka and Madison Keys square off for the Australian Open title on Saturday at Melbourne Park.

Sabalenka envisions a third consecutive trophy at the campaign’s first Major Tournament and is strongly favored against her American counterpart.

Madison Keys stunned Iga Swiatek in the semis and has her mind set on a first Major Tournament win to solidify her career.

EJ Garr’s prediction for Aryna Sabalenka vs. Madison Keys features two plays with odds at -105 and +155 for the WTA Australian Open Finals.

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Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys WTA Australian Open Finals Prediction: A Major Trophy In The Balance

• Prediction: Keys +4.5 Games; Match total Over 2.5 Sets
• Best Odds: -105; +155
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as of 7:00 am UK Time on January 24, 2025. Odds may now differ.

Aryna Sabalenka is listed at -333 to win a third consecutive Australian Open title which is a big statement in what I expect to be a battle. Sabalenka plowed over Paula Badosa in the semifinal and Madison Keys upset Iga Swiatek en route to the finals in the first Major Tournament of the 2025 campaign.

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova gave Sabalenka the toughest match of the five wins at Melbourne Park, pushing the issue to three sets in the quarters. Sabalenka was broken on the first serve of the quarterfinal match, and that was the last time Paula Badosa could crack the World’s #1 service game in the semis.

Sabalenka has a 13-game win streak and is 14 – 0 in the last three Australian Opens. Madison Keys has only one loss in 2025 and both players claimed a title in preparation for the Major. Sabalenka hoisted the Brisbane hardware and Keys picked up the Adeladie trophy to prepare for the trip to Melbourne Park.

I am not fading Madison Keys with almost a handful of games in my pocket. At +4.5 with a -105 offer from Pinnacle, I am pointing to a cover for Keys and an epic three-set finish to the Australian Open.

Keys was listed at +450 when the line closed for the semifinal against Swiatek. To win a three-set match in a tie-break gives Keys the confidence she will need to beat #2 and compete with the #1 in the world in back-to-back outings.

ARYNA SABALENKA RECENT FORM

Aryna Sabalenka was the most dominant player to end the 2024 campaign despite not winning the year-end WTA Finals and has carried that momentum into 2025.

Sabalenka kicked off 2025 with two wins at the WTL and ran off five straight victories at Brisbane before entering the first Major Tournament of the new campaign.

The two-time defending champion at Melbourne Park won the US Open to end last season and is 3 – 1 in four Major Finals appearances.

MADISON KEYS RECENT FORM

Madison Keys brings an 11-match win streak into the Australian Open finals and has the Adelaide title in safekeeping for the return back to the States.

Keys has struggled with Sabalenka losing four of the five meetings and being a heavy underdog provides a challenge.

Keys took advantage of Iga Swiatek’s sloppy service in the second set breaking the Polish #2 all four times in the frame to level the match and force a third set in the semis.

SABALENKA VS KEYS HTH –  STAT OF THE MATCH

Sabalenka and Keys have met five times and Sabalenka holds a 2 – 0 edge in Majors and a 4 – 1 edge in the series.

In 2023, Sabalenka defeated Keys in the quarterfinal at Wimbledon and was victorious against the American in the US Open semifinals.

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