Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, Stats - 10/4/24

Top-seeded Aryna Sabalenka has plowed her way into the quarterfinals with three convincing wins in Beijing and faces off against Karolina Muchova with a spot in the semifinal of the China Open at stake.

The World’s #2 has been playing angry tennis since the run to the US Open title and Sabalenka has continued to get that aggression out in Beijing this week.

Karolina Muchova has a winning record against Sabalenka and will need a big effort to pull off an upset in the quarterfinals of this WTA1000 event. 

EJ Garr’s Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova prediction leans on the favorite to propel into the semifinal and you can get his offer with odds at -110 below.

For more expert tennis predictions, visit Expert Insights!

Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova Prediction

• Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka -3 Games Handicap
• Best Odds: -110
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds updated at 7:00 am UK Time on October 3, 2024. 

The line for this match has been moving all day and I have kept an eye on the movement all afternoon. Sabalenka is reaching odds of -225 to win this contest but the handicap line is what I am looking at.

Earlier today you could have gotten +4.5 with Muchova and now you see that has fallen to +3 as the steam rolls toward the Czech native.

My first thought is to fade the public on that call and now I only have to lay -3 games with Sabalenka to get past Muchova at -110.

I am sorry but I see this as another beatdown as Sabalenka continues to tear the cover off the tennis ball after the US Open title. There has been no letdown in Sabalenka’s attitude and aggression and I cannot fade what I am seeing even if Muchova has won 2 of the 3 meetings with Aryna.

Cincinnati… Check! The US Open… Check! Sabalenka is 15 – 0 coming into this quarterfinal affair with two trophies to end the North American swing to go along with a couple of bucks!

Even if Muchova manages to overachieve and take a set from Sabalenka, it won’t stop the top seed from covering the -3 games spread  The two meetings last season both went to Muchova in three sets so I wouldn’t be shocked if we went the distance.

At -110, I’ll put the -3 on the board with Sabalenka to smash her way into the semifinals of the China Open.

ARYNA SABALENKA RECENT FORM

Aryna Sabalenka could have more confidence but her head might fall off if she keeps gaining all of this momentum, 

At 15 – 0, Sabalenka has been unbeatable and dominant since Cincinnati, and two Major trophies in 2024 look pretty damn good in the cabinet (US and Aussie).

Sabalenka is one win away from claiming victory #50 in the 2024 campaign and only 11 times has she walked off the court in defeat.

With a 33 – 6 record on hard courts, Sabalenka is about to complete a fifth straight season without a losing record on any surface.

KAROLINA MUCHOVA RECENT FORM

Muchova won both meetings with Sabalenka last season and they were both instant classics which I’ll explain below. 

Muchova will need to find that confidence as it has been five years since she won a title on the WTA Tour (2019 Seoul, only career tourney win)

Muchova is 10 – 2 on hard courts since returning to the WTA Tour and has a record of 16 – 5 in 2024 due to time missed with the wrist injury.

SABALENKA VS MUCHOVA H2H –  STAT OF THE MATCH

Sabalenka and Muchova have met three times on the WTA Tour and the Czech native has won two of the affairs.

The first meeting was here in China at Zhuhai and a 2019 match ended with a Sabalenka win in straight sets.

Last season the two met twice and Muchova needed three sets to get past Sabalenka on both occasions. 

At the French Open, Muchova won a fabulous match which amounted to more games than you can shake a racquet at! At  7 – 6. 6 – 7, 7 – 5, Muchova won the semifinal at the Mjor but fell short in the finals.

SAFER GAMBLING

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.