Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, Stats - 3/29/25

Aryna Sabalenka bashed her way into her fourth finals appearance of the 2025 campaign, and her last opponent will be Jessica Pegula at the Miami Open.

The World’s #1 dismantled Jasmine Paolini convincingly in the semifinals, and our readers took advantage of a +164 offer from our WTA expert yesterday. 

Jessica Pegula fought off the Cinderella run for Alexandra Eala in the semifinals. Still, it was a hell of a fight for the American to advance to the final at Miami Gardens.

EJ Garr’s prediction for Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula features odds at +179, which can be found below.

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Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula WTA Miami Open Prediction: So, We Meet Again!

• Prediction: Match Total Over 2.5 Sets
• Best Odds: +179
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as of 7:00 am UK Time on March 28, 2025. Odds may now differ.

Aryna Sabalenka is a win away from her second title of the season and a fourth finals appearance of the 2025 campaign. The World’s #1 came through nicely yesterday, helping us cash the +164 on the first-set Under 8.5 games, taking both sets against Paolini at 2 and 2.

I knew Sabalenka would be in this position after losing the finals at Indian Wells. She’s taken out her frustration on anyone who has stepped across the court this week, and one final challenge against Jessica!

Sabalenka hasn’t dropped a set in the Sunshine State, and her #1 status will stand for another week when the new rankings arrive on Monday.

What a match between Alexandra Eala and Jessica Pegula on Thursday night. The two players were on the court until nearly 1 AM ET, and the American was pushed to the limit, ending the Cinderella story for the Philippine native.

Eala forced Pegula to a tie-break in the opening set, and after losing the opening frame, the Philippine native didn’t settle for a nice showing in Miami. Eala took a medical timeout midway through the second set, and all it did was motivate the youngster to take the second set, and the match went the distance before Pegula advanced.

I have this match going the distance, and don’t let the fact that Eala just pushed Pegula as hard as she did deter you. On top of that, the +179 offer on the hopes of a three-set thriller are just as exciting as deciding a champion in Miami.

ARYNA SABALENKA RECENT FORM

Aryna Sabalenka is 22 – 4 in 2025 and is playing in her fourth final this season. A title at Brisbane to begin the year,

Sabalenka was a finalist at the Australian Open and Indian Wells. 

The World’s #1 became the fourth woman to achieve three straight semifinal showings at the Aussie Open, Indian Wells, and Miami Open when she took down Qinwen Zheng in the quarters.

JESSICA PEGULA RECENT FORM

Jessica Pegula improved to 20 – 5 in 2025 with the semifinal win against Alexandra Eala.

Pegula just won the title in Austin and is competing in her second final of the campaign.

The 4th-ranked American is 1 – 7 in the last 8 meetings with Sabalenka. 

SABALENKA VS PEGULA HTH –  STAT OF THE MATCH

Aryna Sabalenka is 6 – 2 in eight matches against Jessica Pegula. Pegula won their first encounter in Cincinnati during the 2020 campaign, and the World’s #1 has owned Pegula since then, winning seven of the last eight decisions.

This is the third straight meeting between Sabalenka and Pegula in the finals of an event.

Last year at Cincinnati and the US Open, Sabalenka defeated Pegula with the trophy at stake and won both times.

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