Aryna Sabalenka vs Jasmine Paolini Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, Stats - 11/4/24

Aryna Sabalenka and Jasmine Paolini earned straight-set wins to kick off the WTA Finals on Saturday. The two ladies meet on Monday in Saudi Arabia with first place in the purple group at stake and the World’s #1 is a heavy favorite to take command of the proceedings.

At odds reaching close to -600, Sabalenka is expected to ease past her Italian counterpart and a win today could essentially clinch a semifinal appearance.

Paolini dismantled Elena Rybakina to open her WTA Finals ledger and now faces an uphill battle as a big underdog. 

EJ Garr’s Aryna Sabalenka vs Jasmine Paolini prediction features odds at -115 which you can find below.

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Aryna Sabalenka vs Jasmine Paolini Prediction: Taking Control Group Purple

• Prediction: Match Total Over 20 Games
• Best Odds: -115
• Bookmaker: Unibet
• Stakes: 3/10

Not so fast! I hope you took advantage of my offer on Paolini to cover the handicap against Rybakina and the Italian native did that and then some. With the outright win to begin play at the WTA Finals, Paolini is in second place in group purple with a 13 – 10 game count after the win on Saturday and can ill afford to get humiliated in chasing that second semifinal spot. 

Head-to-head records and games won throughout group play will likely decide one of this group’s two semifinal spots. 

Sabalenka’s 6 – 4, 6 – 3 win over Zheng gives her a 12 – 7 lead atop the group and a match with Elena Rybakina is next for the World’s #1.

It was nice of Qinwen Zheng to meet Sabalenka at the net with a semblance of decency after Saturday’s loss. There is no love lost between them and I am sure that the Chinese native is still pissed about the loss to open the WTA Finals.

The odds of this match going the distance at Unibet are +204 and I cannot tell you what that is doing to me! I hope they get there but I am offering the total to go over 20 games expecting the Italian to give Sabalenka a bigger fight than the experts want you to believe. 

ARYNA SABALENKA RECENT FORM

Aryna Sabalenka is 21 – 1 over the last 22 outings and has claimed three tournament wins since the beginning of the North American swing in July.

The World’s #1 won Cincinnati, the US Open, and Wuhan leading to the WTA Finals on top of the Australian Open title to start the 2024 campaign.

Sabalenka is 55 – 12 this season with a 39 – 7 record on hard courts and produced a third 50-win campaign since 2018. 

JASMINE PAOLINI RECENT FORM

Jasmine Paolini went 3 – 2 competing in only two events during the Asian swing.

Since the Olympic games, Paolini is 8 – 4 and picked up win #40 for the season after getting past Rybakina on Saturday.

Paolini is 20 – 11 on hard courts this year and has produced the first season with winning records on all three surfaces.

SABALENKA VS PAOLINI H2H –  STATS OF THE MATCH

Sabalenka and Paolini have met four times on the WTA Tour since 2017 and the series is level at 2 – 2.

Paolini won their first encounter on grass during the 2017 campaign and Sabalenka leveled the series at 1 – 1 after the victory in 2020 at Linz.

In 2022 at Indian Wells, Paolini got past Sabalenka in three sets, and last season they paired up in Beijing where Sabalenka again leveled the series with a straight-sets win. 

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