Aryna Sabalenka vs Jasmine Paolini Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, Stats - 3/27/25

We’re down to the final four standing at the Miami Open, and one of the two semifinal affairs features the match between Aryna Sabalenka and Jasmine Paolini.

The World’s #1 is heavily favored to reach her fourth final appearance of the 2025 campaign, but the Italian native will do her best to push back and provide another big upset from Miami Gardens. 

Ask Alexandra Eala about upsets in Miami this week, after the Philippine native ousted Iga Swiatek yesterday in straight sets!

EJ Garr’s prediction for Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jasmine Paolini features odds at +164, which can be found below.

For more expert tennis predictions, visit Expert Insights!

Aryna Sabalenka vs Jasmine Paolini WTA Miami Open Prediction: Italian Facing Big Odds

• Prediction: 1st-Set Total Under 8.5 Games
• Best Odds: +164
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as of 7:00 am UK Time on March 27, 2025. Odds may now differ.

BetMGM and Pinnacle have the highest lines on the board from all the bookmakers, listing Aryna Sabalenka as a -625 favorite to ease past Jasmine Paolini. This is quite a disrespectful statement from the line setters who expect Sabalenka to plow over Paolini, and I agree with them.

We hit the Sabalenka -4.5 spread yesterday, but that second set was about as hairy as it gets against Qinwen Zheng. There were more breaks in that quarterfinal affair than from a bull walking through a China shop. 

Sabalenka broke Zheng three times in the first set and was broken once in a 6 – 2 opening frame. Zheng broke Sabalenka on her first three service games in the second set, and Sabalenka broke Zheng in three of her first four tries to hold serve and push the match to a third frame.

Zheng has still never defeated Sabalenka, but Jasmine Paolini has claimed two victories against the World’s #1 in five meetings on the WTA Tour.

Oddly, the line setters are posting -5.5 on the Sabalenka spread, but the total is 20.5? Something doesn’t line up there because a 6 – 4, 6 – 3 win for Sabalenka would see Paolini cover with the under hitting. Paolini would have to get one of the first two sets to a tie-break or push that match to a third set to hit that Over, but I don’t see it happening.

With a low expectation on Paolini to hang around early with Sabalenka, the +164 odds on the Under 8,5 games in the opening frame have my attention. The odds speak for themselves alone, but I envision a 6 – 2 first set in Sabalenka’s favor.

ARYNA SABALENKA RECENT FORM

Aryna Sabalenka improved to 21 – 4 this season after the quarterfinal win against Qinwen Zhen. 

Sabalenka became the fourth #1 to have reached the semi-finals of the Australian Open, Indian Wells, and the Miami Open in the same season. Another win could push Sabalenka into her fourth finals appearance on the campaign, having one title from the run at Brisbane to start the season.

JASMINE PAOLINI RECENT FORM

Jasmine Paolini’s path to the semifinals can be questioned up and down the list of names she’s faced in this WTA1000 event.

Paolini defeated Rebecca Sramkova, and her match with Ons Jabeur only went 7 games before the Tunisian retired. The Italian needed three sets to get past Naomi Osaka and faced Magda Linette in the quarters. I call that an easy path!

Paolini is 12 – 5 this season and started the week ranked 7th on the WTA Tour. 

SABALENKA VS PAOLINI HTH –  STAT OF THE MATCH

Aryna Sabalenka is 3 – 2 in five meetings with Jasmine Paolini.

Paolini won the first meeting between them on the grass of Illkey during the 2017 campaign, needing three sets to claim victory.

Sabalenka won their only decision in 2020 at Linz, and in 2022, Paolini defeated Sabalenka again in three sets at Indian Wells.

Sabalenka beat Paolini in their only meeting in 2023 at Beijing, and at last year’s WTA Finals, Paolini was defeated in straight sets.

SAFER GAMBLING

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.