Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, Stats - 11/6/24

Aryna Sabalenka is through to the semifinal of the WTA Finals in Riyadh and all that is left is a match with Elena Rybakina to wrap up Purple Group play.

Sabalenka has cruised to a pair of straight-set wins in two Purple Group outings and the World’s #1 will keep that position with a win as a big favorite on Wednesday in Saudi Arabia.

Elena Rybakina has no chance to progress and is playing her final match as a +350 underdog.

EJ Garr’s Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina prediction features odds at -108 and can be found below.

For more expert tennis predictions, visit Expert Insights!

Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina Prediction: Kazakh Eliminated Early

• Prediction: Match Total Under 20.5 Games
• Best Odds: -108
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds updated at 7:00 am UK Time on November 6, 2024. 

The only thing left to accomplish for Elena Rybakina is not to get embarrassed in her final showing at the WTA Finals. This event is over for the Kazakh native after two losses opening Purple Group play against Jasmine Paolini and Qinwen Zheng.

While we enjoyed the three-set match with Zheng and Rybakina cashing a nice ticket on the Over 2.5 Sets, I don’t see this match quite getting there today.

The hardest thing to judge regarding this match is Sabalenkas’ desire to give a big effort because there is nothing to gain outside of securing the #1 spot in the WTA Rankings. While the semifinals are clinched for Sabalenka, getting hurt in a pointless effort would be devastating so why go hard?

That is the biggest question we all face in handicapping this affair but I still see an under happening here. Sabalenka doesn’t want to lose this match at 6 – 0, 6 – 0, but it wouldn’t matter if she did because the next stage is already waiting. I don’t envision Sabalenka taking this match lightly either because she wants to keep that hot hand and confidence high entering the weekend.

Rybakina was close to not making the trip to Riyadh and now that she is down and out we can’t expect a grand effort that goes for nothing. 

I am pointing to the under 20.5 games expecting a straight-sets win for Sabalenka to cruise into the semis.

ARYNA SABALENKA RECENT FORM

Aryna Sabalenka will secure the #1 ranking in the World with a win today but even a loss wouldn’t be the biggest disappointment in the third match of Purple Group play. 

Sabalenka can clinch that spot with a win at the semifinals where she will be after two wins in Saudi Arabia this week.

Sabalenka is 22 – 1 over the last 23 outings and is the clear favorite to hoist the WTA Finals hardware and with each win earning $350,000 in group play she will pocket the first million bucks. A semifinal appearance garners $1.27M and the winner of this event pockets another $2.5M.

ELENA RYBAKINA RECENT FORM

Elena Rybakina missed the entire Asian swing and is 1 – 4 over the last 5 outings with two losses in Saudi Arabia this week.

Already out of the event, we do not expect a valiant effort to close out the proceedings for the Kazakh native who was questionable to be here at all.

Rybakina is 23 – 7 on hard courts after the loss to Qinwen Zheng and has a 41 – 11 record in 2024.

SABALENKA VS RYBAKINA H2H –  STAT OF THE MATCH

Sabalenka and Rybakina have met 11 times since 2019 and I wish this match had some meaning behind it. Seven of the 11 affairs have needed three sets to declare the victor but there is nothing to gain or lose in this final match of Purple Group play.

Sabalenka has won 7 of the 11 affairs but split two meetings during the 2024 campaign. 

SAFER GAMBLING

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.