Aryna Sabalenka vs Coco Gauff Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, Stats - 11/8/24

Aryna Sabalenka has secured the women’s #1 ranking for the 2024 campaign and American Coco Gauff will be her semifinal opponent at the WTA Finals in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

Sabalenka earned top-spot honors from the Purple Group early with two wins, and Coco Gauff fell to the second position of the Orange Group to build this semifinal.

The American is the expected underdog with Sabalenka favored at -200 to advance to the finals but anything can happen and it usually does!

EJ Garr’s Aryna Sabalenka vs. Coco Gauff prediction features odds at -105 which you can find below.

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Aryna Sabalenka vs Coco Gauff Prediction: Third Time The Charm?

• Prediction: Coco Gauff +3 Games Handicap
• Best Odds: -105
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as of 7:00 am UK Time on November 8, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Aryna Sabalenka is making her third consecutive appearance in the semifinals of the year-end event and is two wins away from winning for the first time. Sabalenka fell to Iga Swiatek in the semifinal last season and Caroline Garcia defeated her in the 2022 finals.

While Coco was holding the top seed of the Orange Group going into the last match, her bid for the semifinal was already secured so there was no reason to go bonkers despite the straight-sets loss to Krejcikova.

Krejcikova took over the top spot in the group with the win against Coco Gauff in straight sets yesterday but Coco didn’t need to blast off and force the issue. 

I thought Sabalenka would approach her final match of Orange Group play with Rybakina with the same mindset but that wasn’t the case. I have no idea why Sabalenka dropped the first set against Rybakina only to put forth the effort to force a third set. 

And to then give up and give Rybakina a 6 – 1 final-frame victory?

Sabalenka spent 1:41 on the court playing much longer than she needed to against Rybakina yesterday. That is concerning because it was a pointless effort. Coco took the right approach against Krejcikova because she didn’t care about 1 or 2 seed noise in the semis.

I’ll take Coco to cover the +3 spread and we might just see another three-setter in the semis as I called for in the Zheng vs. Krejcikova match!

ARYNA SABALENKA RECENT FORM

The third time isn’t always the charm and this is Aryna’s third shot at the WTA Finals hardware.

Sabalenka will finish the year with a big, fat #1 attached to her name no matter if she flops out of the event but let’s not expect that to happen.

Sabalenka will go balls-to-the-wall and even though everyone is exhausted from a long 2024 campaign she feels that this is her event to win in 2024.

The World’s #1 is 30 – 8 on hard courts this year with a record of 56 – 13 in 2024.

COCO GAUFF RECENT FORM

Coco Gauff went 9 – 1 during the Asian swing and the only thing that held her from winning two titles was Aryna Sabalenka! 

Gauff won the Beijing event and lost to Sabalenka in the semifinal at Wuhan leading to the WTA Finals.

Coco is 33 – 10 on hard courts this season with a 52 – 17 record for the 2024 campaign and will complete a fifth straight year without a losing record on any surface.

SABALENKA VS GAUFF H2H –  STAT OF THE MATCH

There is plenty of history between Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff on the WTA Tour.

This semifinal clash at the WTA Finals will mark the ninth time Sabalenka and Gauff have met and someone will break the tie today! 

At 4 – 4, five of the eight affairs have needed three sets to declare the victor and it doesn’t get much bigger than what’s at stake today with $3.7M going to the WTA Finals title holder.

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