Aryna Sabalenka vs Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, Stats - 1/20/25

We have arrived at the quarterfinals of the Australian Open and two-time defending champions Aryna Sabalenka will face Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova as a heavy favorite to reach the semis.

The line setters have made quite a statement posting a -1000 line on Sabalenka to blow past her compatriot Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova who has never passed this stage of the Major Tournament at Melbourne Park.

EJ Garr’s prediction for Aryna Sabalenka vs. Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova features odds at -105 which you can find below.

For more expert tennis predictions, visit Expert Insights!

Aryna Sabalenka vs Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova WTA Australian Open Prediction: Compatriots Battle For The Semis

• Prediction: Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova +6 Games
• Best Odds: -105
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as of 7:00 am UK Time on January 20, 2025. Odds may now differ.

The World’s #1 and top-seeded Aryna Sabalenka hasn’t been thoroughly challenged at the 2025 Australian Open as she eyes a third consecutive trophy at Melbourne Park.

Only eight other women in the history of Women’s tennis had won three straight Australian Open titles dating back to 1922 when it was labeled the Australasian Championships.

Only five women have hoisted three straight trophies at Melbourne Park in the Open Era (1969-), and Sabalenka wants to be the sixth. Martina Hingis was the last player to accomplish the feat (1997- 99). Sabalenka is also following up the 2024 US Open win by chasing consecutive Major titles along with a third Australian Open trophy.

Riding an 11-match win streak in the quarterfinals of the Australian Open, Sabalenka hasn’t lost since the WTA Finals against Coco Gauff and went 2 – 0 at the World Tennis League before running off five wins en route to the Brisbane title.

Pavlyuchenkova has been a quarterfinalist at the Australian Open on three occasions. Reaching that stage in 2017, ‘19, and ‘20, Anastasia has only once gotten out of the quarterfinals in any Major Tournament (2021 French Open Finalist).

Pavlyuchenkova has been pushed to three sets in two of the four matches at Melbourne Park and I was shocked that Donna Vekic even finished the fourth-round affair. After the first set tie-break went to Pavlyuckenova, Vekic needed a medical timeout for her right knee and got swept in the second set, 6 – 0 but finished the match.

I’ll take the +6 chance on Pavlyuchenkova to hang around long enough to cover the handicap.

ARYNA SABALENKA RECENT FORM

Aryna Sabalenka finished 2024 ranked #1 after the run to the US Open title. Despite falling short at the year-end WTA Finals to Coco Gauff, Sabalenka has reeled off 11 straight wins and hasn’t dropped a set at the Australian Open.

After a 55 – 14 2023 campaign, Sabalenka improved that by one win with a 56 – 14 record in 2024. 

ANASTASIA PAVLYUCHENKOVA RECENT FORM

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova started the week ranked 32nd on the WTA Tour and has the odds stacked against her. Pinnacle is offering +744 odds on Pavlyuchenkova to upset Sabalenka and she knows it will take a monumental effort to provide the surprise.

Pavlyuchenkova was 27 – 19 last season and is 4 – 1 in 2025 with four wins at the Australian Open.  

SABALENKA VS PAVLYUCHENKOVA HTH –  STAT OF THE MATCH

Sabalenka and Palyuchenkova have met three times on the WTA Tour and the latter is 2 – 1 in the series. Pavlyuchenkova defeated Sabalanka at the 2021 French Open in three sets after Sabalenka earned a straight-sets win at Madrid a month previous. 

Their first meeting was in 2019 at Toronto and Pavlyuchenkova won that affair in three sets. 

The winner of this match will face Coco Gauff or Paula Badosa in the semifinals of the Australian Open. I will have a preview and prediction for that quarterfinal affair so look out for it!

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