Arthur Rinderknech vs Mattia Bellucci Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, July 26th

After a nice Thursday, let’s see if we can finish the week strong. Our first preview comes from the ATP 250 Atlanta Open as we break down Arthur Rinderknech vs Mattia Bellucci. Jon Reid’s Rinderknech vs Bellucci prediction is available below!

Bellucci’s win probability is only 42%, while Rinderknech is favoured to win at 1.57 odds. The handicap is 1.5 games and the total games line is 23.5.

Arthur Rinderknech vs Mattia Bellucci Prediction: Crafty Southpaw to Trouble Big Serving Frenchman

• Prediction: Bellucci to win
• Best Odds: 2.38
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stakes: 2/10

Odds updated at 3:00 am UK Time on July 26th, 2024. 

It’s tough to back an underpowered player on quick courts like these against someone that serves as well as Rinderknech as we witnessed last round when he beat Adam Walton, but I think Bellucci has what it takes to keep this one pretty close.

Yes, overcoming the fact that Rinderknech is going to find far more cheap points on serve than him is going to be a task, but the Italian is one of the few players that employs a more crafty style that actually tends to fare better in quicker conditions (fellow lefty Yoshihito Nishioka is another).

Bellucci has the obvious edge when it comes to playing more consistent tennis, is the better athlete and has more variety to his game.

Finally, he has a big advantage in any crosscourt exchanges from the forehand side as he can continually hit higher-margin balls into that Rinderknech backhand – a groundstroke that is far from reliable.

I don’t think these factors make him the favourite, but I do think they close the gap enough against Rinderknech to make a wager with odds set at 2.37 at the moment. Our Rinderknech vs Bellucci prediction is for Bellucci to win.

We have more previews – including coverage from the early rounds of the 2024 Olympics – on the expert insights page. 

Arthur Rinderknech Recent Form

This week represents just the second time in the last four months that Rinderknech has won two matches at the same tournaments (the other being Lyon the week prior to the French Open). The low margin, powerful style has not yielded much success this year, and even this week in Atlanta, his wins have come against Walton and J.J. Wolf (who has been lost in the wilderness all season).

Though Bellucci may not be a world beater, he certainly has aspects to his game that can trouble the poor mover with a weak backhand and Rinderknech should look to play within himself a bit more on Friday and try to minimise the unforced error count.

He’s just a bit too one dimensional for me to believe he’s a strong favourite to win and his form isn’t anything that would alleviate any of those concerns.

Mattia Bellucci Recent Form

After a slow start to his 2024 campaign, Bellucci has begun rounding into form in the last few months. He’s 13-5 since the French Open across three surfaces and multiple levels, qualifying at both Roland Garros and the All England Club.

Even those losses haven’t been the worst looks. Four have come to tour level regulars and those same four matches have come in a deciding set.

When tasked with tough competition, he’s still managed to keep things really close. Needless to say, I’m not sure Rinderknech is near the level of players like Ben Shelton, Frances Tiafoe or Brandon Nakashima.

Sure, the surface should help Rinderknech, but there are also keys to victory for Bellucci in this one. Where his opponent will have to find a way to reduce the error count, it will be imperative for Bellucci to find a rhythm on return or decipher certain patterns that Rinderknech falls into on serve. Last round he was borderline untouchable. Bellucci is going to have to find a way to crack the serve.

Arthur Rinderknech vs Mattia Bellucci H2H – Stat of the Match

This is the first encounter between these two. Should be a fun contest and stylistic contrast!

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