Matteo Arnaldi vs Yibing Wu Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 3/20/25

Our second preview of the day looks at a pair of talented players with one on his way back from injury. It’s Matteo Arnaldi vs Yibing Wu in the ATP singles draw from the Miami Open.

Wu’s win probability is down below 25%, while Arnaldi is favoured to win at 1.22 odds. The handicap is 4.5 games and the total games line is 21.5.

Jon Reid’s Arnaldi vs Wu prediction is for Wu to surprise people in his return to action.

Matteo Arnaldi vs Yibing Wu Prediction: Incredible Talent to Shock Arnaldi in Tour Return

• Prediction: Wu to win the 1st Set & Wu to win
• Best Odds: 3.40 & 4.33
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stakes: 2/10 & 2/10

Odds as at 1:30 am UK Time on March 20th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

Attacking the undervalued outsiders was profitable on Wednesday and I’ll look to find another pair on Thursday. After a 1-1 day that saw the loss go 0-for-9 on break point chances versus his opponent going 2-for-3, I’m ecstatic with the analysis and think I have another player that is being disrespected in this spot.

I’m well aware Wu hasn’t played much…ever, thanks to a slew of injuries over the years, but let’s consider a few things. First and foremost, his opponent is no world-beater. Arnaldi has some impressive traits and his game certainly possesses quality. It also possesses the tendency to lose the plot at any given moment and chuck away points left, right and centre with unforced errors.

Then there’s the fact that Wu isn’t returning from hibernation. He’s been on the court working off some rust for months preparing for this return to action.

Finally, Wu is returning in conditions that suit his game. Medium paced to quick hard courts complement his flat, clean ball striking beautifully. Further, it also means he shouldn’t have as much trouble keeping points a bit shorter, helping conserve some energy and making things a tad less physical.

I’ll go for both the first set moneyline, as well as the full match just in case he does have trouble playing out multiple sets.

More tennis previews can be found on the expert insights page.

Matteo Arnaldi Recent Form

I don’t want to be the guy that only talks down a talented young player’s game in an effort to build a narrative that Wu is going to win. So, let me start by saying that I really do like the combination of athleticism, pop on groundstrokes and shotmaking that the Italian brings to the table.

Problem is, we don’t see all three of those things firing at once and the errors are still commonplace in his game to the point that it cancels all the things he does well out in some matches.

Throw in an opponent who is much tougher than the market believes and I’m not sold on him being this dominant of a favourite in the markets.

This feels like a low-risk, high-reward proposition and even if they lose more often than they win, if they win enough to be profitable, I’ll be a happy camper.

Yibing Wu Recent Form

I’ll keep this short and sweet, there’s not much form to analyse.

He hasn’t played since the fall and in all of 2024 he played just six tournaments, retiring in a third of those (and winning one of the others).

Injuries have been an issue longer than the last few years though, and you wonder where he would’ve been without them. He was a top prospect as a youngster and he’s shown time and again when healthy what he’s capable of.

Hopefully we’ll see a more prolonged run of tournaments and form in the coming months.

Matteo Arnaldi vs Yibing Wu H2H – Stat of the Match

With Wu having trouble staying healthy, it’s no surprise that he hasn’t crossed paths with Arnaldi prior to Thursday’s contest.

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