Adrian Andreev vs Giovanni Fonio Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, September 5th

The second preview of the day comes from the AON Open in Genoa, Italy. Let’s look at Adrian Andreev vs Giovanni Fonio in the night match.

Fonio’s win probability is a little over 33%, while Andreev is favoured to win at 1.43 odds. The handicap is 3.5 games and the total games line is 21.5.

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Our Fonio vs Andreev prediction is for Fonio to pull off the upset.

Adrian Andreev vs Giovanni Fonio Prediction: Consistent Italian Live to Upset In Form Andreev

• Prediction: Fonio to win
• Best Odds: 2.89
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 2/10

Odds as at 3:00 am UK Time on September 5th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

A classic stylistic contrast and form-driven price, we’re seeing the more aggressive player, coming off a title priced up a dominant favourite in this contest.

I’m not so sure that’s deserved against a player that can wait out mistakes (which Andreev all too often concedes), and considering he’s only ever proven himself at this level once. It just so happens that it was a week ago.

To me, this has the feel of an overreaction and recency bias, and I’m happy to oppose Andreev with a price nearing the 3.00 mark.

Adrian Andreev Recent Form

The primary factor driving this kind of price is the form of the Bulgarian, who captured his first career Challenger last week in Porto. Even with that title, however, he’s still outside the top-250 in the world rankings.

That tells us that he’s really struggled to consistently play tennis at a decent level. There’s no doubting his firepower, but he’s lacked consistency from the baseline and it’s cost him matches for years.

The other question that has to be posed of the 23-year-old is how he’ll hold up backing up that long week. He beat a defensive-minded player in Gennaro Olivieri in the opening round of play, but that took three sets and now playing another grinder who may be able to not only wear him down even more, but extract unforced errors from him I’m certainly not willing to bet on him winning nearly as often as the market.

Giovanni Fonio Recent Form

A near 50% on the season in terms of his win-loss record, Fonio isn’t one that is going to dominate many players with his less powerful style.

He can frustrate them, especially those that tend to overhit and commit a lot of errors. We already saw him upset a more powerful Stefano Napolitano in the opening round of action and I’d have him priced up in the 38-40% range to do the same to Andreev this time out.

If Andreev is at all worn out, that percentage would only increase for me.

Adrian Andreev vs Giovanni Fonio H2H – Stat of the Match

The only prior meeting between these two was a tight affair earlier this year on a hard court that saw Andreev win out in a 7-5 deciding set.

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