Daniel Altmaier vs Francisco Comesana Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 1/10/25

Our next preview comes from the Australian Open as well. This one features two guys who prefer clay courts, but one who is much stronger than the other in this matchup. Let’s look at Daniel Altmaier vs Francisco Comesana.

Comesana’s win probability is under 50%, while Altmaier is favoured to win at 1. odds. The handicap is 3.5 games and the total games line is .5.

Jon Reid’s Altmaier vs Comesana prediction is for Comesana to win.

Daniel Altmaier vs Francisco Comesana Prediction: Trust More Solid Player in Clay Matchup on Hard Courts

• Prediction: Comesana to win
• Best Odds: 2.12
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 4/10

Odds as at 4:00 am UK Time on January 10th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

Win or lose, there is no way in my mind that Comesana should be the underdog here. He may be a clay court player primarily, but Altmaier is also in that boat. When it comes to attacking game, Comesana’s first serve is more powerful than he’s often given credit for and should be able to keep pace with Altmaier. In terms of backhands, the two-hander for the Argentine is also more reliable than Altmaier’s one handed stroke and in terms of error count, it’s far more likely Comesana can keep a lid on those.

Then there’s the fact that Comesana is still undervalued on quicker courts, despite continually posting decent results against strong players on hard or grass courts.

That undervaluation is one I’m looking to exploit here against a mediocre opponent also off his preferred surface and with holes in his game.

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Daniel Altmaier Recent Form

It has not been a fun start to the season for the tall German, who has won just one match against a lowly-ranked player and even then he had to come back from a 0-4 start.

His other three matches ended up as losses against one clay court centric tour player and a pair of Challenger talents. Not inspiring in the least.

The serve is decent, but the spin-heavy forehand doesn’t play all that well in these conditions and his error count just won’t cut it since he doesn’t have the weapons to find winners that offset those mistakes.

I’m sure there are metrics that have some bettors liking him in this spot, but I simply can’t have him favoured from a qualitative standpoint against an emerging talent who has improved on quick courts and is much more well rounded.

Francisco Comesana Recent Form

Comesana may only be 1-2 on the year himself, but his poor loss came by a similar margin to one of the players that also beat Altmaier, while he also nearly pulled off a huge upset against Zizou Bergs a week ago.

That has been a familiar theme since Wimbledon last season. At that tournament he took down a top-10 player with pedigree on quicker surfaces in Andrey Rublev, then beat Adam Walton – again as an underdog – and then pushed Lorenzo Musetti in a close four setter.

Then at the U.S. Open, he stunned another pair of strong hard court players with powerful games and who had the lefty game to try and rush his backhand. Dominic Stricker and Ugo Humbert were both sent packing.

Those wins aren’t just impressive because of who he beat, but also because they all came at majors. That speaks to his ability to beat superior competition in this tougher best of five format. Factor in that I don’t even think Altmaier should be considered superior competition and you’ve got a pretty poor price to go after.

Daniel Altmaier vs Francisco Comesana H2H – Stat of the Match

Oddly enough, with both guys being clay court players by nature and spending so much on the Challenger Tour, they have yet to meet on the professional tours.

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