Football 
Tennis 
Horse Racing Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Gustavo Heide Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 20/11/24
Wednesday’s preview from the ATP Challenger Tour keeps us at the Sao Paulo Open as we look at Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Gustavo Heide.
Heide’s win probability is a surprisingly-high 47%, while Kovacevic is favoured to win at 1.72 odds. The handicap is 1.5 games and the total games line is 22.5.
For more daily tennis tips, visit the bettingexpert community, but if you want more expert tips from Jon Reid, visit our Expert Insights section.
Jon Reid’s Kovacevic vs Heide prediction is for Kovacevic to win.
Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Gustavo Heide Prediction: Comfortable Win for the American
- Prediction:Kovacevic to win & Kovacevic -2 Games
- Best Odds: 1.74 & 2.00
- Bookmaker: Pinnacle
- Stakes: 4/10 & 2/10
Odds as at 2:45 am UK Time on November 20th, 2024. Odds may now differ.
Yesterday’s larger play didn’t go all that well, but not being afraid to lose bets or let losses influence one’s approach going forward is key in succeeding in this industry. That’s why I’m going right back to the well, backing the bigger server at altitude and the much more proficient hard court player in this matchup.
I do think that with his strong forehand and aggressive mindset, the Brazilian is poised for future success on hard courts, but I can’t have him nearing the 50% mark in terms of his chances to win this match against someone like Kovacevic.
He doesn’t have nearly enough matches played on the surface for my liking and he’d be better off if he was playing another clay-centric type of player like he did last round (there are enough of them in the draw).
Aleksandar Kovacevic Recent Form
It has been a rough summer and fall stretch for the 26-year-old, and that is likely why he’s featuring in late November on the Challenger circuit in a South American hard court tournament.
It’s time to get back on track after spending time on the main tour and losing early on with regularity. Now, he’s played much stronger players and has kept things close against some of those guys, but the fact remains he’s just 5-11 since Montreal, with all of those wins coming in qualifying draws or on the Challenger Tour (that includes his first round win against another Brazilian in Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida).
Here, he goes from being overmatched and too one dimensional to compete to being one of the favourites to lift the trophy and pick up 75 much-needed ranking points.
The serve and forehand combination should love playing a few hundred metres above sea level, while the one-handed backhand shouldn’t be too bothered against most players in this draw, who tend to fare better on clay and don’t have the ability to really rush him on that side.
He could seriously use a strong week for his confidence heading into 2025, and also just to ensure that he locks up a spot in the main draw of the Australian Open. I don’t think he’s really in danger of missing out, but a few wins here would certainly ensure that he doesn’t have to play through the qualifying draw.
Gustavo Heide Recent Form
Credit where it’s due for Heide, who did beat his compatriot Joao Lucas Reis da Silva to reach this stage. A 6-4, 6-3 win against a pretty erratic clay court specialist isn’t exactly a win that moves the metre much for me.
Looking at his hard court resume this season, I don’t find any such win as a matter of fact. That’s down to the fact that he simply hasn’t played on hard courts in 2024. His only other match came in qualifying for the U.S. Open, where he was clobbered by Jesper de Jong in straight sets.
He did play a bit more on the surface in 2023, but other than a run to the semifinals in Palmas del Mar as a qualifier, he has very few results that are impressive. I’d make the case that his week in Puerto Rico was an outlier and not really indicative of his overall level on hard courts.
His chances to win aren’t nil though. I don’t want to paint him as hopeless here. He has a nice forehand, his opponent may have a tough day when it comes to unforced errors and Kovacevic isn’t the greatest returner, so things may stay close. The key here is that the path to victory seems fairly narrow and giving him a nearly 50-50 chance is far too optimistic by my estimation.
Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Gustavo Heide H2H – Stat of the Match
This is the first time these two have met in a professional match.
NOVEMBER 18-24 IS SAFER GAMBLING WEEK 2024
November 18-24 marks an important date in the betting calendar. Safer Gambling Week is a significant industry-wide event that aims to shed more light on responsible betting. For more information and advice, head to the bettingexpert Safer Gambling hub or our brief explainer below:
