UFC Fight Night Vegas 51 Best Bets: Luque vs Muhammad

Another UFC main event provides another exciting rematch with Vicente Luque facing Belal Muhammed 6 years after their initial encounter. Devin Clark will also make his way back to the octagon after his scary injury last September to face William ‘The Knightmare’ Knight. I have 2 of my best bets with very high value backing the underdog in both fights. Take a look at my analysis below.

UFC Fight Night Vegas 51:

• Vicente Luque vs Belal Muhammad: Mohammad to Win at 2.50
• Devin Clark vs William Knight: Knight to Win at 2.40

Odds as at 3pm April 14th 2022. Odds may now differ.

Vicente Luque vs Belal Muhammad Best Bet

Vicente Luque is one of the most exciting fighters the UFC has to offer, with a career 11 KO/TKO victories, and his 4 fight winning streak has landed him in 5th place in the Welterweight rankings. He is coming off an impressive submission victory over Michael Chiesa in the first round. Luque is definitely an impressive fighter, but he is a heavy favourite in this fight despite facing an opponent sitting just 1 spot below him in the rankings. He is available at 1.57 odds to win, and with 85% of bettors backing him, there is not much value here.

But Luque is a striking-heavy fighter who loves to end fights early, and I don’t trust him to be able to go 5 rounds without gassing out. Yes, ye already beat Belal Muhammed in 2016 by KO, but a lot has changed since then. None of Luque’s last 4 fights have gone to a decision, as he has been able to finish the job, but his losses to Stephen Thompson and Leon Edwards are a concerning point. 5 of his 7 career losses have come via decision, and I don’t believe he will be able to get another KO victory over Muhammad at this point.

Belal Muhammad has come a long way since his KO defeat to Vicente Luque 6 years ago. Since then, he has won 10 fights, lost just 1 and 1 no-contest against Leon Edwards. He is on a 6-fight winning streak, barring the NC against Edwards, and is coming off a dominant decision victory against Stephen ‘Wonderboy’ Thompson. He looked very impressive in that fight, landing 7 takedowns and keeping the fight on the ground the entire time. Muhammad has made huge strides in his game in recent years, and he certainly shouldn’t be such a huge underdog in this fight. Value alert!

As I said, Muhammad has made huge leaps in his game, and his wrestling has reached a whole new level which we saw against Wonderboy last time around. He did an excellent job landing takedowns, keeping his opponent on the ground and landing some nice and damaging strikes. His stamina was also exceptional which will be a huge weapon in a 5-round main event, and I’m expecting a similar performance this time around. Let’s face it, the only way Muhammad is getting the victory is via decision, with 15 of his 20 career wins coming this way. He isn’t going to try and box against a lethal striker like Luque, and he certainly isn’t going to submit a BJJ black belt. But he can keep the fight mostly on the ground and apply enough pressure to get himself another decision win.

• Selection: Muhammad to Win
• Best Odds: 2.60 (Marathonbet)
• Stakes: 6/10

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Devin Clark vs William Knight Best Bet

Devin Clark will be making his return to the octagon this Saturday night after suffering a scary jaw injury in his last bout in September 2021. He lost the fight via unanimous decision and is now on a 2-fight losing streak. But despite losing 3 of his last 5 fights, and missing some time due to the said injury, Clark is still the favourite coming into this fight at 1.58 odds. I see this as a mistake by the bookmakers and I see some nice value in going the other way for this one.

Clark has an MMA record of 12 wins and 6 losses, most of which have come more recently and at 32 years of age, I don’t see him bouncing back any time soon. He doesn’t have much power in his hands and has yet to earn a KO/TKO victory in the UFC/ His wrestling isn’t impressive, and he has taken a lot of damage in his recent MMA career. In fact, I expect his recent injury, as well as the threat of 3rd loss in a row to prevent Clark from fighting at his best level and decrease his already low striking volume of 3.13 strikes landed per minute.

William Knight is an excellent underdog at 2.42 odds to win. He is coming off a decision loss to Maxim Grishin, but he also has an MMA record of 11 wins, 9 of which have come via KO/TKO. His 3 career losses have all come in the last 3 years, but he has also won 8 fights during that span. Knight has been very active in the octagon in recent years but hasn’t taken nearly as much damage as his current opponent. But the biggest reason for backing him against Clark is his fighting ability.

Knight is basically a flea market Francis Ngannou – a very powerful striker with exceptional knockout power, but without the improved wrestling. Knight is very athletic for a heavyweight and has the ability to finish fights in a hurry. He has bounced back with KO/TKO victories after each of his career losses, and I expect a very motivated and powerful performance out of him once again. if you’re looking for a more precise prediction, I expect Knight to get another KO/TKO victory, but I see more than enough value in backing him in the moneyline market.

• Selection: Knight to Win
• Best Odds: 2.42 (Marathonbet)
• Stakes: 5/10

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