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Horse Racing UFC 306 O'Malley vs Dvalishvili Prediction, Betting Preview: Murky Waters Ahead of UFC 306
UFC 306 takes place this Saturday, September 14th at the Sphere in Las Vegas, Nevada, and the main event of the evening will be the Bantamweight title fight between Sean O’Malley and Merab Dvalishvili.
Our MMA analyst Milan Stanojic will have his UFC 306 picks and predictions for the event shortly, but first, let’s have a look at the historical profit numbers for Moneyline betting on both fighters taking part in the main event. Both have very impressive records, but the profit numbers are quite different! Have a look at the article below for our UFC 306 O’Malley vs Dvalishvili betting preview!
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UFC 306 Sean O’Malley Betting Preview: Tons of Value on Suga
| Stake | Return | Profit | Roi % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Units | 17.73 | 5.73 Units | 47.75 |
| $1200 | $1773 | $573 | 47.75 |
Table updated on September 11th, 2024.
Sean O’Malley is the UFC Bantamweight champion with an MMA record of 18 wins and 1 loss. He has fought 12 times under the UFC banner and currently has a record of 10 wins, 1 loss, and 1 NC. He is coming off his first-ever title defense against Marlon Vera, the only fighter who he had lost to in his MMA career.
When it comes to betting on Suga, it’s pretty clear that backing him has been a very good idea so far, but anyone can tell you that with a 10-1-1 record. His ROI is quite good, especially for a fighter who has been the favorite in most of his UFC bouts. He was the underdog in just 2 of his UFC fights, at 3.12 odds against Petr Yan and 2.94 against Aljamain Sterling for the belt back in August 2023. We all know how both of these fights turned out, and they boosted his profitability a lot.
Without those two fights, his record would be at 1.67 units and an ROI of 16.7%. Normally, would be considered quite good if we were talking about basketball, but in MMA, I like to see a lot higher yield since the risk is a lot higher.
His odds to win against Dvalishvili are at 1.73 at Bet365 and have shortened significantly from the opening 2.30 on July 27th.
UFC 306 Merab Dvalishvili Betting Preview: Always the Bridesmaid
| Stake | Return | Profit | ROI% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 15.54 | 3.54 | 29.49 |
| $1200 | $1554 | $354 | 29.49 |
Table updated on September 11th, 2024.
Merab Dvalishvili is the #1-ranked fighter in the UFC Bantamweight division and has been among the top fighters for quite some time. He has the same number of fights as O’Malley in the UFC with a record of 10 wins and 2 losses.
Merab Dvalishvili has been working toward a title shot for quite some time, and now that his teammate Aljamain Sterling is no longer the champ, Merab has the green light to try and win UFC gold.
Merab’s profitability is quite a bit lower than Sean’s, despite his impressive 10-2 record in the UFC, and that’s because he was the heavy favorite in almost all of the fights he has won. The only instance where Dvalishvili was the underdog was against Per Yan, where he secured a decision win at 3.01 odds. Without that one, he would have been barely in profit.
The 2 losses at the beginning of his UFC stint against Frankie Saenz and Ricky Simon also contribute to the low profit numbers.
He is available at 2.10 odds to win against O’Malley, and the odds opened at 1.67 on July 27th.
UFC 306 O’Malley vs Dvalishvili Betting Odds: Murky Waters
| Bet365 Odds | Sean O’Malley | Merab Dvalishvili |
|---|---|---|
| To Win Fight | 1.72 | 2.10 |
| By Decision or Technical Decision | 4.75 | 2.65 |
| By KO, TKO or DQ | 2.75 | 10.00 |
| By Submission | 13.00 | 19.00 |
| To go the distance | Yes – 1.76 | No – 1.90 |
Odds were updated on September 11th, 2024.
As mentioned above, Sean O’Malley has gone down from 2.30 to 1.73 odds on Bet365 and is now available at 1.90 at 1xBet. Meanwhile, Merab, who was the favorite is now available as high as 2.10 odds on Bet365 and William Hill.
The big question is why?
Well, as it turns out, Merab has contracted a staph infection. Anyone who follows MMA knows that these things can be detrimental to a fighter’s cardio, which is largely what Dvalishvili’s game is based on. He is known as the Belal Muhammad of the Bantamweight division, taking fights to decisions in all but 1 of his UFC wins and winning based on endurance. This is exactly what happened in his last 2 fights against Henry Cedujo and Petr Yan. Merab actually attempted 49 takedowns against Yan and landed 11. That is insane!
Sean O’Malley vs Merab Dvalishvili Prediction: All of the eggs baby!
- Selection: O’Malley to win!
- Best odds: 1.87
- Bookmaker: 1xBet
- Stake: 8/10
- Bonus Bet: O’Malley by KO/TKO/DQ at 2.75 odds and 2/10 stakes!
Never put all your eggs in one basket, right? Well, that’s exactly what we’re doing here. I don’t see much value in any of the other fights on the card, so I’m going all-in on this one.
Stylistically, Merab is a great match-up for Strickland. He is older, shorter, and has a shorter reach. His striking isn’t very good, and he leaves his head open to strikes too often. I don’t like his pre-fight eye cut and apparent staph infection. I expect Sean to be able to keep the distance for the most part using his footwork and reach advantage. When Merab can get takedowns, he isn’t someone who can keep opponents down for very long, as exemplified by his 49 attempts against Yan.
The cut on Merab’s right eye is a huge red flag. Based on recent images, I don’t think it’s anywhere near healing completely and it will be cut open again in the fight. When that happens, the ref should eventually be forced to call a stoppage, and that’s my bonus bet!
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