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Horse Racing UFC 305 Betting Preview: Dricus Du Plessis vs Israel Adesanya - Where is the value?
The main event of UFC 305 this weekend will feature the Middleweight title fight between champion Dricus Du Plessis and former champ Israel Adesanya! MMA fans have been waiting for this fight for a few years, and we finally get to see these two settle their well-documented feud in the octagon.
But, from a sports betting perspective, we are more interested in the betting value and potential profit, not just the. This is why our MMA betting analyst Milan Stanojic has had a look at the data for betting on these two guys in the last few years. The results of his research are in the article below, but if you need more MMA predictions and analyses, visit our Expert Insights section!
UFC 305 Betting Preview – Dricus Du Plessis: He will fight for your money
| Israel Adesanya | Stake | Return | Profit | ROI% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Units | 7 | 13.65 | 6.65 | 95% |
| Dollars | $700 | $1365 | $665 | 95% |
Updated on August 15th, 2024.
An ROI of 95% is insane when it comes to sports betting, I’m going to say that right now. However, I’m certain that this number will come down to earth by the time he decides to retire. Dricus du Plessis is still undefeated in the UFC Middleweight division, and with all 7 of his fights being victories, you would expect a solid profit.
This return of $1365 is heavily impacted by his win over Robert Whittaker, where the odds for him to win were around 3.81. Without this fight, the profit number goes down to 2.84 (ROI% of 40%), which is much more realistic, but still quite good. The odds for him to win his last 7 fights were as follows:
- vs Strickland: 1.90 (−111)
- vs Whittaker: 3.81 (+281)
- vs Brunson: 1.44 (−227)
- vs Till: 1.53 (−189)
- vs Tavares: 1.58 (−172)
- vs Giles: 1.84 (−119)
- vs Perez: 1.55 (−182)
What’s interesting about Du Plessis is that he has only lost 2 MMA fights in his career, and also only 2 of his 23 fights have gone to a decision. Dricus will leave it all out there, regardless of whether he is winning, losing, gassing out or the neighbor’s dog was barking too loud. Now, let’s take a look at Izzy.
UFC 305 Betting Preview – Israel Adesanya: Books Love Adesanya too much
| Stake | Return | Profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 13.13 | 1.13 | 9% |
| $1200 | $1313 | $131 | 9% |
I decided not to use all of Izzy’s fights since joining the UFC, but instead take the last 5 years for a more precise picture. Betting on Israel Adesanya during this time has certainly been profitable. Not even close to Du Plessis’ numbers, but still quite good. If you tell any serious sports bettor that they will have a guaranteed 9% ROI if they consistently bet on a team or a fighter, they would take that deal any day of the week.
That said, I want to give you the whole picture. These are the odds on Adesanya to win in his last 12 fights:
- vs Strickland: 1.15 (−667)
- vs Pereira: 1.76 (−132)
- vs Pereira: 1.45 (−222)
- vs Cannonier: 1.18 (−556)
- vs Whittaker: 1.33 (−303)
- vs Vettori: 1.40 (−250)
- vs Blachowicz: 1.40 (−250)
- vs Paulo Costa: 1.52 (−192)
- vs Yoel Romero: 1.33 (−303)
- vs Robert Whittaker: 1.86 (−116)
- vs Kelvin Gastelum: 1.56 (−179)
- Anderson Silva: 1.19 (−526)
A huge reason why betting on Izzy hasn’t been as profitable as you might expect is that he is always the favorite. Mind you, the 1.15 against Strickland and 1.18 vs Cannonier were both title fights, so even though his record is 9-3 in the last 5 calendar years, the bookmakers kill any opportunity of making a larger profit with these odds.
The tricky thing about betting on Izzy is he is so unpredictable. In his last fights against Strickland, he lost the fight convincingly by decision and was afraid to engage in striking exchanges after the initial knockdown. His team said that he ‘wasn’t feeling it’ and that ‘his head wasn’t the game, but as a bettor… I don’t like hearing these excuses.
This wasn’t the first time we expected Izzy to dominate and he came up short. Some of his poorer performances have been masked by a winning record. All in all, you can still argue that betting on him here at 1.80 odds has value, just don’t say we didn’t warn you.
The Implication: Du Plessis a proven Value Underdog
| Method of Victory | Dricus Du Plessis | Israel Adesanya |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| By Decision or Technical Decision | 5.25 | 2.90 |
| By KO, TKO, or DQ | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| By Submission | 6.50 | 26.00 |
| Draw | 81.00 | |
Odds from bet365 updated on August 15th, 2024.
As you can see, Izzy is slightly favored by the bookmakers to retake the Middleweight belt, while Du Plessis is at 2.00 or 2.08 at 1xBet. According to Unibet, 76% of bets are on Izzy and 24% on Du Plessis. Izzy opened at 1.67 odds on June 18th, and Du Plessis was at 2.25.
This is definitely a difficult fight to predict, but having a fighter like Du Plessis in the role of the underdog is always comforting. Just refer to the Whittaker fight. Perhaps I am influenced too much by Izzy’s last performance, but I am picking Du Plessis to defend the title. You can read more about that and my other picks for UFC 305 here.
Some Betting trends:
- Dricus Du Plessis is undefeated since joining the UFC
- Only 2 of his career fights have gone to judges’ decision
- Dricus has 2 decisions, 2 TKOs and 1 submission in his last 5 fights
- Adesanya has 27 professional MMA fights, none of which have ended via submission
- Adesanya has 16 career TKO wins, the rest were by decision
- Only Alex Pereira has been able to KO Adesanya in MMA
- 8 of Izzy’s last 12 fights have gone to judges’ decision
SAFER GAMBLING
At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.
