UFC 271 Best Bets: Israel Adesanya vs Robert Whittaker

The UFC is back with more fighting action this weekend in UFC 271, and with a total of 15 fights, there are more than enough betting opportunities and a ton of betting value. The main event will see Israel Adesanya and Robert Whittaker hammering each other for the Middleweight title, but the prelims are also packed with solid value picks.

In this article:

• Israel Adesanya vs Robert Whittaker Best Bet
• Jared Cannonier vs Derek Brunson Best Bet
• William Knight vs Maxim Grishin Best Bet
• AJ Dobson vs Jacob Malkoun Best Bet

UFC 271 Best Bets:

Odds available as at 8 pm February 10 2022. Odds may now differ

Israel Adesanya vs Robert Whittaker Best Bet

The main event of the night will see the Middleweight champion Israel Adesanya making his 4th title defence in a rematch against Robert Whittaker. Their first encounter was a KO victory for Adesanya in the second round. Adesanya is a very sophisticated striker, and his ability to keep the distance and avoid opposing strikes is what has made him so successful in the Middleweight division. With a career takedown defence of 80%, along with the immense progress in his wrestling and jiu-jitsu in recent fights, it’s unlikely we will see another Blachowicz-type loss. His use of leg kicks, movement, and elite boxing skills is extremely difficult to counter, and with 15 career KO/TKO wins, he is always a threat to go off.

Robert Whittaker is the number one contender for the Middleweight title, and with 4 wins in his last 5 fights, he certainly deserves it. His only loss since 2014 is his unsuccessful title defence against Israel Adesanya in 2019. Since then, he has won all of his 3 fights against Darren Till, Jarrod Cannonier and Kelvin Gastelum. Quite the resume. Wittaker is known in the UFC Middleweight division as a very dangerous striker with excellent wrestling and very few weaknesses. In fact, the only reason he got caught in the Adesanya fight is that he was over-aggressive in an attempt to make up for his 18-centimetre reach disadvantage. That said, Whittaker is always a danger for both KO and submission finishes, and despite the fact that he is a heavy underdog in this one, I believe he has an excellent shot to win. That said, the only thing I am certain about in this fight is that it will not go the distance. I do expect a more cautious approach from Whittaker in this one, perhaps a few takedown attempts, but with 5 rounds and the striking ability of both fighters, I just can’t see a decision.

Tip: To Go the Distance: No at 1.90 odds

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Jared Cannonier vs Derek Brunson Best Bet

Jared Cannonier has been in the UFC since 2015 and with an MMA record of 14 wins  and5 losses, he has made a reputation for himself as a very dangerous opponent. With 9 total KO/TKO wins in his career, he is as powerful as they come, and most of his losses have been against elite competition like Glover Teixeira, Jan Blachovicz, Dominick Reyes and Robert Whittaker. He is coming off a nice bounce-back victory against Kelvin Gastelum. His takedown defence has been terrific in his recent fights, stuffing all 8 attempts from Gastelum in their last fight, and only allowing 1/6 against Jack Hermansson. He isn’t the most technical striker in the division, but his power is incredible and I expect him to get a KO/TKO victory in this one.

Meanwhile, Derek Brunson is on a 5-fight winning streak and coming off a submission victory over Darren Till. Brunson is also known in the division as a powerful striker, but his durability is a huge concern, with 5 KO/TKO losses in his career. Brunson relies heavily on his wrestling and struggles to win against opponents with good takedowns defence like Israel Adesanya and Robert Whittaker. That said, Brunson isn’t the better striker in this fight, and if Cannonier continues with his excellent takedown defence, he will have the fight in the bag.

Tip: Jared Cannonier to Win at 1.61 odds

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William Knight vs Maxim Grishin Best Bet

William Knight has won 4 of his last 5 UFC fights and is coming off a nice decision victory over Alonzo Mayfield in December 2021. He is primarily a striker with immense KO power and explosiveness. But his biggest strength in this fight will be the development of his takedown defence. In his loss to Da Un Jung, Knight got taken down 8 times and lost the fight via decision despite taking minimal damage. But he stuffed both takedowns in his fight against Menifield and if he can keep the same trend in this fight, his superior striking and immense power will get him the victory in this one.

Maxim Grishin is the older and more experienced fighter in this fight, but he has lost 2 of his last 3 fights, and he is showing signs of slowing down. Grishin has only landed 1 takedown in his last 3 fights, and I would be surprised if he has the stamina and durability to outstrike Knight for 3 rounds. He is almost 38 years old, and despite his 13-centimetre reach advantage, I don’t think he will be able to counter Knight’s pace and power. Grishin already has 3 career KO/TKO losses, and chances are he will suffer another one in this fight.

Tip: William Knight to Win at 2.45 odds

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AJ Dobson vs Jacob Malkoun Best Bet

AJ Dobson will make his UFC debut this weekend after defeating Hashem Arkhagha in Dana White’s Contender Series via rear-naked choke. With a career record of 6 wins and 0 losses, very little is known about this 30-year old fighter. There is a lot of hype surrounding Dobson since his appearance in the Contender Series, but he is facing a 4-year younger opponent who already has 2 UFC fights under his belt. I expect a cautious performance out of Dobson in this one, due to the excellent wrestling ability of his opponent, and his lack of experience will likely prevent him from showing his true potential.

On the other side of the octagon, we have Jacob Malkoun – a 26-year old fighter who relies heavily on his grappling. Malkoun suffered a KO loss in his UFC debut against the explosive Phil Hawes but bounced back nicely with a smart wrestling-heavy decision victory against Abdul Razak Alhassan. Malkoun had 8 takedowns in the fight and avoided exposing himself in longer striking exchanges. He convinced the judges to give him the decision victory, and I’m expecting a similar performance once again from the young prospect. He is available at 3.25 odds to win by decision/technical decision, but I’m happy to back him in the 1×2 market this weekend.

Tip: Jacob Malkoun to Win at 2.00 odds
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