UFC 270 Best Bets: Ngannou vs Gane, Moreno vs Figueiredo, Morales vs Giles and Hansen vs Jasudavicius

After a long pause and a mediocre event last weekend, the UFC is finally back for UFC 270. There was a lot of betting value in this event, with two title fights and 13 bouts overall, but these are the top 4 value bets for this Saturday night. Our UFC Best Bets are now in 39.83 units of profit with a 14.28% yield, so let’s keep it up this weekend.

In this article:

• Francis Ngannau vs Ciryl Gane Best Bet
• Brandon Moreno vs Daiveson Figueiredo Best Bet
• Michael Morales vs Trevin Giles Best Bet
• Kay Hansen vs Jasmine Jasudavicius Best Bet

UFC 270 Best Bets:

Odds available as at 10 am January 21st 2022. Odds may now differ

Francis Ngannou vs Ciryl Gane Best Bet

Francis Ngannou won the UFC Heavyweight belt against Stipe Miocic in March 2021. He will be making his first appearance in the octagon in almost a year for UFC 270 hoping to make his first successful title defence. Ngannou has made a reputation in the UFC as a very powerful striker, who can easily subdue opponents with a single punch. With notable KO/TKO victories over dangerous opponents like Stipe Miocic, Alistair Overeem, Jairzinho Rozenstruik and, Junior dos Santos, Ngannou is the most powerful puncher in the UFC. But his lack of footwork, wrestling and overall inactivity in the octagon in the last 2 years are definitely signs of caution.

Meanwhile, Ciryl Gane has been very active in the UFC since his arrival in August 2019, going undefeated in 7 fights, and taking down Rozenstruik, Volkov, Lewis and Dos Santos. Gane is mostly known for his fighting IQ and skills, which involve exceptional footwork, head movement and a broad striking arsenal. Gane knows how to invest in front kicks, as well as leg kicks, and often reaps the rewards of his hard work in the later rounds, where he easily finishes opponents at a moment’s notice.  Unlike Ngannou, he is capable of going all the way in a  5-round fight, and he refuses to stay in the pocket for dangerous exchanges. I expect Gane to dish out another striking clinic against an old sparring partner, and eventually finish the fight sometime after the 3rd round.

Tip: Ciryl Gane by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission at 2.50 odds.  

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Brandon Moreno vs Deiveson Figueiredo Best Bet

The UFC Flyweight champion Brandon Moreno is looking to make his first title defence in the trilogy fight against Deiveson Figueiredo.  He won the Flyweight title in June 2021 against his current opponent via rear-naked choke. At 28-years old, Moreno is the much younger fighter in this one with a 5-centimetre reach advantage and much better cardio. The biggest danger for him in this one is his opponent’s immense knockout power, and if he is able to survive the first 2 rounds without getting KOed, he will have an excellent chance to win.

I backed Figueiredo to win last time, but after seeing the toll his huge weight cut took on his body, I simply can’t trust him to win, even at 2.50 odds. Figueiredo has immense knockout power for the Flyweight division, but he is simply too big and too old to be fighting at 125 pounds. The results were evident in their last encounter where his durability was heavily impacted by the huge weight cut. What’s more, his stamina is a big point of concern for title fights, whereas Moreno can seemingly go for all 5 rounds at the same intensity. If Figueiredo wins, it will be in the first 2 to 3 rounds, but he will be very vulnerable to getting finished after round 3. I don’t expect this one to go the distance like their first encounter, and taking the odds into consideration, the most valuable pick is Under 4.5 rounds.

Tip: Under 4.5 rounds at 1.80 odds

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Michael Morales vs Trevin Giles Best Bet

Michael Morales made his way to the UFC through Dana White’s Contender Series back in September, and he is already looking to make his official UFC debut. Morales is primarily a striker with lots of KO power, already earning 9 career KO/TKO victories at the young age of 22. He is a very technical striker with a lot of patience and composure, but he is also capable of putting opponents down to the mat due to his wrestling background.

Meanwhile, Trevin Giles has been in the UFC since 2017 and has amassed a record of 5 wins and 3 losses. He is coming off a brutal knockout loss against Dricus du Plessis in July last year. Giles holds 5 career submission victories, but I don’t believe that his brown belt in BJJ will be enough to finish a wrestler the calibre of Morales. Morales also has the upper hand in the striking department, a 13-centimetre reach advantage and is 8 years younger. Morales is the obvious choice in this one, and at 1.77 odds he still provides some solid value.

Tip: Michael Morales to Win at 1.77 odds

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Kay Hansen vs Jasmine Jasudavicius Best Bet

Kay Hansen has been in the UFC since June 2020 and has only fought 2 times since, making a long absence since November of the same year up until now. She is the heavy favourite in this one, but she is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Cory McKenna and is available at 1.44 odds to win. That said, she is a solid fighter with the capability of finishing the fight on the feet and on the ground. However, she has suffered injury issues in her long absence away from the cage and with her two performances in the UFC already being subpar, I don’t advise backing her in this one.

In fact, it’s Jasmine Jasudavicius that carries a lot of betting value in this fight. Despite being 10 years older than her opponent, Jasudavicius has a 13-centimetre reach advantage, and her striking is more technical. She is on a 2-fight winning streak, and with solid fundamentals and cardio, I don’t see a reason why backing her at 2.88 odds to win is a bad idea. Her use of the jab combined with her huge reach advantage will be her biggest weapon in this fight, and she has the wrestling skills to counter Hansen’s potential takedown attempts. Jasudavicius has a huge advantage in this fight, and I trust her to get another solid decision victory.

Tip: Jasmine Jasudavicius to Win at 2.88 odds 

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