UFC 269 Best Bets: Oliveira vs Poirier, Cruz vs Munhoz, Kara-France vs Garbrandt, Sakai vs Tuivasa

UFC 269 Best Bets:

Odds available as at 7 pm December 9th 2021. Odds may now differ

Charles Oliveira vs Dustin Poirier

Charles Oliveira is the defending Lightweight champion looking to make his first title defence after winning it against Michael Chandler in May of this year. At 32 years of age, Oliveira has created a reputation as a very dangerous fighter who can finish fights in multiple ways.  In his most recent bout against Michael Chandler, Oliveira broke the record for the most finishes in the UFC with 17, and he holds 19 career wins by submission as well as 9 by KO/KO. Although his elite grappling has always been his strongest attribute, Oliveira has developed his striking to a level where he can match even the most experienced fighters in the division.

Meanwhile, Dustin Poirier is one of the UFC’s premium fighters, having joined the promotion back in 2011 and fought in 25 events since. Poirier holds high-profile victories over Max Halloway (2), Connor McGregor (2),  Dan Hooker, Eddie Alvarez, Justin Gaethje and Anthony Pettis. In fact, Poirier won the Lightweight belt back in 2011 against Hallway but lost it soon after to Khabib Nurmagomedov (triangle-choke).  Poirier holds 7 career submission wins, but his grappling is nowhere near Oliveira’s as he has mostly relied on his striking throughout his career. But even Michael Chandler was unable to finish Oliveira with his striking, as the Brazilian is simply too skilled and durable at this point of his career.  In fact, Dustin’s fighting style is perfect for landing takedowns, and I expect Oliveira to finish the fight before the 4th round – most likely via submission.

Tip: Charles Oliveira to win at 2.49 odds

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Dominick Cruz vs Pedro Munhoz

Dominick Cruz has had one of the most interesting careers out of any UFC fighter so far. He was the Bantwameright champion twice in his career but lost the title once due to injuries and the second time to Cody Garbrandt in 2016. Cruz spent recent years mostly fighting injuries but made a comeback recently by defeating Casey Kenney by split decision. Cruz is known for his unique fighting style that involves a lot of peculiar head movement and a specific footwork pattern. He is a very elusive fighter and is very difficult to pinpoint, which is why only Henry Cedujo was able to properly knock him out in his entire career.

Pedro Munhoz is an experienced UFC veteran at 35 years of age and 26 pro fights. With 19 wins and 6 losses, Munhoz holds impressive wins over big names such as Cody Garbrandt and Jimmie Rivera. But his recent form has been mediocre at best, and he has lost to Jose Aldo, Frankie Edgar and Aljamain Sterling. Munhoz is simply past his prime, and he doesn’t have what it takes to take on the top contenders in the division. His conditioning was also subpar in his recent bout against Aldo, and Dominick Cruz definitely has a striking advantage in this one.

Tip: Dominick Cruz to win at 1.95 odds

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Kai Kara-France vs Cody Garbrandt

Kai Kara-France is an up-and-coming fighter in the Flyweight division with an MMA record of 22 wins and 9 losses. Kara-France is ranked 6th in the Flyweight rankings and is working toward a title shot. He is coming off a KO victory over Rogerio Bantonin. Kara-France is a very skilled and technical striker, and his power has allowed him to earn an impressive 10 KO/TKO career wins. His grappling is far from sufficient, but I don’t expect this fight to turn into a wrestling match. KAra-France is a very dangerous striker, and his striking power should be enough to get the job done in this one.

Cody Garbrandt is the former Bantamweight champion, winning the title against Dominick Cruz looking to revive his career by dropping down to the Flyweight division. But he has suffered 3 KO/TKO losses relatively recently, and fighting an opponent such as Kara-France is certainly not a good situation for him. Garbrandt is a powerful striker in the Bantamweight, but his defence has never been up to par.  What’s more, the huge weight cut will diminish his striking power, and Garbrandt simply isn’t used to the speed and skill level of the Flyweight division. I don’t believe this is a good match-up for him, and he is likely to suffer another KO/TKO loss.

Tip: Kai Kara-France to win at 2.25 odds

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Augusto Sakai vs Tai Tuivasa

Augusto Sakai is ranked 11th in the UFC Heavyweight rankings and has earned high-profile wins against Andrei Arlovski, Marcin Tybura, and Blagoy Ivanov in just 3 years. But his recent form has been quite poor, with 2 KO/TKO losses in a row in the last year against Alistair Overeem and Jairzinho Rozenstruik. The TKO loss came in June of this year, and it happened in the 1st round. Sakai simply doesn’t fare well against powerful strikers and has shown a lack of confidence in his chin – and for good reason.

Tai Tuivasa has managed to get his physique in check, allowing him to earn KO/TKO wins in all of his last 3 fights, including an impressive KO win over Greg Hardy. Tuivasa is an up-and-coming Heavyweight prospect with excellent boxing and solid kicks. He is the worst possible match-up for Sakai in this situation, especially considering the fact that 11 of his 12 career MMA wins have come off KO/TKOs. He is a technical striker with a very good chin and immense knockout power, and he could very well hand Sakai his 2nd KO loss in the 1st round in a row. The bookmakers look at this one and see a coin toss, but all of the value is with Tuivasa in this one.

Tip:  Tai Tuivasa to Win at 1.94 odds

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